IPO · resolved market
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7d8fc08e52e2850f7cc0e28b17b56ec89d84b4aee2c3f8fad1bf8dae1449d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 3c | 12,216$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 2c | 6,668$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…71edbacked Yes | 11c | 5,000$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 7c | 4,650$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,183$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,843$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…f29cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,409$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 12c | 2,326$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,183$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 5c | 1,637$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,182$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…bf7ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,159$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -47%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 945.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…f026backed Yes | 32c | 910.23$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 892.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 4c | 890$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 14c | 861.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 2c | 817.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 4c | 814$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 797$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 14c | 693.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 11c | 662.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 631.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683c…c127backed Yes | 9c | 571.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 27c | 555.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 8c | 550$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…4c93backed Yes | 17c | 548.56$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 3c | 523.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…5789backed Yes | 7c | 512.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 4c | 320$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 5c | 302$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…caf7backed Yes | 5c | 286.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c0…1002backed Yes | 18c | 280.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 4c | 262.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc471…8064backed Yes | 19c | 254.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…93cfbacked Yes | 12c | 243.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 9c | 223.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…a008backed Yes | 8c | 200.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 185.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 172.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…af31backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked Yes | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 18c | 123.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 115.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771b…d522backed Yes | 18c | 113.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 109.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…391dbacked Yes | 22c | 91.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…a850backed Yes | 25c | 88.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8af…37e5backed Yes | 21c | 83.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…f383backed Yes | 25c | 80.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 40c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 19c | 61.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 65c | 50.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 76c | 45.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…9498backed Yes | 40c | 44.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6f…922ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 78c | 38.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 76c | 18.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?this page
- Will Barclays or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?Yes won
- Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
- Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.