AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3874fb38de9e096413dafd20c54c4b629216641d4f3361ce0649627596983c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a77…38a4backed Yes | 25c | 9,882$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,411.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 4c | 6,520$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.24 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…0243backed No | 75c | 3,758$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 15c | 3,577$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025.65 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 52c | 3,492$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.69 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b5…e8cabacked No | 75c | 3,116$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…86eebacked No | 75c | 2,889$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 32c | 2,500$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,695.03 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 74c | 2,187$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.89 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 66c | 1,911$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.47 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 931.86$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.79 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 39c | 690.21$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.01 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 58c | 666.97$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.83 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 58c | 664.43$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.88 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 26c | 575.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…d3adbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 72c | 481.46$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 61c | 363.53$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.94 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 46c | 315.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 44c | 310.44$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed No | 28c | 267.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 77c | 255.57$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 78c | 249.9$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 46c | 223.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 14c | 201.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.05 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0f…0ababacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 40c | 126.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…a84ebacked No | 75c | 119$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 55c | 97.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 31c | 97.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 41c | 89.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 61c | 87.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 79c | 71.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 29c | 67.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 63.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 49c | 61.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 46c | 59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…04c3backed Yes | 76c | 56.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 55.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176f…0fa3backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1a…a223backed Yes | 42c | 48.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 27c | 43.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 45c | 42.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8038…3531backed Yes | 45c | 33.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…a9bdbacked No | 65c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…b50bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -21%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 50c | 31.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 76c | 26.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 61c | 24.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaed…130abacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f7e9backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 17.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…04cfbacked Yes | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 16.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.