AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67950869be46ce1f2c9d3f3396c6d8bd54fa0d6f747d03279a545ea5853af56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 1c | 7,011$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71a…d65cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,249$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 922.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 1c | 892.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 17c | 656.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 2c | 618.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 3c | 436.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 3c | 393.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 374.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 214.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 139.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 56c | 133.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yes | 42c | 125.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 69c | 88.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 43c | 68.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 68c | 60.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 35c | 54.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 52.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 46.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked No | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 68c | 26.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.