AI · resolved market
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e32c556ed12cfcc8c2a111d79ec4b65ebaf630bda12ccc0be6019678c7a1536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 8,484$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.16 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 41c | 3,258$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.68 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 64c | 2,389$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.09 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 23c | 2,383$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.66 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,608$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.27 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 19c | 1,148$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 54c | 967.61$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.93 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 925.05$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.18 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 716.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.47 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 59c | 437.31$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.27 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 80c | 350$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…6459backed Yes | 23c | 321.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 46c | 317.39$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…f742backed Yes | 21c | 283.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 53c | 272.43$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 51c | 268.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.93 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…db5bbacked Yes | 56c | 268$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…3e68backed No | 44c | 268$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 75c | 256.56$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.49 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x328f…4079backed Yes | 75c | 207.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 78c | 174.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 37c | 173.22$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…2ad1backed Yes | 15c | 168.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 35c | 144.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 18c | 140.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 107.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 75c | 100.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 97.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…3f3bbacked Yes | 39c | 90.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 18c | 87.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 55c | 85.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 58.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 54c | 54.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 50.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 40c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 29c | 45.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 65c | 43.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Yes | 80c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 80c | 35.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15a…5d8bbacked No | 77c | 33.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…42fcbacked Yes | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…00c3backed No | 73c | 30.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6a…6b69backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…75d3backed Yes | 57c | 29.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…2b46backed No | 77c | 25.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c2…86c8backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Mistral have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.