NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad61485a2cf809264c154b9d1a115e592f17df2eb138dc0c173548b26ed03d59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,373$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 51c | 1,949$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 38c | 761.53$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.15 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 43c | 214$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ab…2b99backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 181$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 38c | 172.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 62c | 161.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 21c | 145.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…b1e9backed Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Over | 60c | 131.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…d0ccbacked Under | 50c | 122$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3a…e5d4backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47c…8d70backed Under | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…d509backed Under | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e6…1339backed Under | 50c | 114$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Over | 61c | 97.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…b227backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 41c | 80.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Over | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 39c | 69.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 52.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…f649backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…8abbbacked Over | 60c | 33.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 61c | 29.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-3.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Magic (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spurs vs. MagicSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Magic: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Magic: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.