NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f7ea569a0682c248c9c6d8c80de162d38b26a4173985ea66e988f1677e820a5

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	44c	2,119$933 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,185.92	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over	1c	1,336$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.36	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	57c	1,316$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Under	1c	1,291$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,277.83	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	49c	1,087$531 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.9	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4e…498abacked Over	50c	720.84$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	53c	266$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.97	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	47c	211.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.33	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over	51c	178$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.06	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over	56c	164$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.3	217	49.3%107 W · 110 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Over	57c	154.39$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over	47c	150$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.5	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	44c	109$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.04	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over	57c	105.26$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d53…061cbacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2929…1ab2backed Over	53c	96$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	52c	56$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Over	55c	54.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.48	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9d8…0074backed Under	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+3.1wins	+0.52per pick	48cpaid	+109.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9273…4d96backed Under	45c	46$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad87…f9a1backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	350	52%182 W · 168 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0af…5490backed Over	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	288	56.9%164 W · 124 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	56c	28.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0141…7df4backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.27per pick	50cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5093…3ea6backed Under	53c	19.81$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.31	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event