NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b1f3cf2ebc190c8c5cee1d7efd8ae9110177277da94014c62f83c940a454d5d

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Magic, Spurs
Resolved: Dec 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $75,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,786

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,495 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x245b…00c5backed Magic	52c	37,230$19,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,359.42	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd3…7bf6backed Spurs	48c	18,517$8,888 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,628.67	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic	53c	11,809$6,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,258.79	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Magic	53c	11,226$5,950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,950	131	53.4%70 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Spurs	47c	10,000$4,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,300	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Spurs	47c	8,498$3,994 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,503.93	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0674…8bf5backed Spurs	48c	8,326$3,997 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,329.56	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs	46c	7,140$3,312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,827.5	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd80e…8a69backed Spurs	48c	6,042$2,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,141.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Magic	54c	5,000$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Spurs	48c	3,852$1,845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,007.26	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	45c	1,236$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.36	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs	47c	1,125$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594.95	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Spurs	47c	1,104$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$585	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Magic	53c	1,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.2wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs	55c	1,000$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Spurs	46c	740.93$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.6	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2012…128fbacked Spurs	55c	700$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Magic	51c	500$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Spurs	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Magic	53c	300$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Spurs	48c	229.17$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.17	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spurs	45c	216.81$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.24	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Spurs	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e7…85a1backed Spurs	47c	199.97$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.98	195	56.9%111 W · 84 L	+20.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Spurs	48c	194.5$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.42	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8a…591cbacked Magic	53c	186$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.58	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-43%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Magic	53c	169.81$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Spurs	47c	160$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.8	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Spurs	47c	150$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Magic	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	47c	98$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.94	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Magic	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	199	57.8%115 W · 84 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Spurs	48c	81.25$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.25	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Spurs	48c	70$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.4	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs	47c	53$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.09	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19f…f745backed Spurs	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5210backed Spurs	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Spurs	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c44…739abacked Magic	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Magic	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82d3…08bcbacked Spurs	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Spurs	47c	35.8$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.97	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Magic	53c	32.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	162	53.1%86 W · 76 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x075a…8d34backed Spurs	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	128	58.6%75 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Spurs	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Magic	54c	24.05$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	146	54.8%80 W · 66 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdc7…31c0backed Spurs	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event