TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spursof Spurs, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,025,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,163,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,025,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs27c256,151$68,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187,579.232,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic74c192,202$142,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142,229.561,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Spurs28c166,020$46,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,260.1720253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Spurs25c109,999$27,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,199.6127424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic75c90,000$67,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,50017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Magic74c50,000$37,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,999.9451350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs42c48,496$20,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,296.3334062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Magic74c42,643$31,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,530.537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs27c35,000$9,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,55038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1517…5b34backed Spurs75c33,374$25,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,213.192050%10 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Magic66c30,000$19,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,699.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Magic16c28,726$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590.822,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Spurs25c27,707$6,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,734.0710235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic31c27,237$8,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,346.961,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Spurs64c23,928$15,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,520.571,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Magic73c23,144$16,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,895.2326753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic46c23,054$10,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,624.224,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Magic30c21,048$6,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,293.1326038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Magic57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,399.9810837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Magic51c19,768$10,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,003.2821944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic72c19,511$14,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,083.0192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Magic72c18,967$13,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,688.9144459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddd…39eebacked Spurs30c17,961$5,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,531.8722542.2%95 W · 130 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe756…e006backed Spurs30c15,974$4,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,253.2932827.4%90 W · 238 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6f…2e89backed Spurs78c15,498$12,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,419.732429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Magic73c15,137$11,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,010.5611741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Magic74c14,853$10,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,9913354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Spurs70c13,459$9,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.1819388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spurs42c13,214$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,629.2985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed Magic74c13,000$9,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6202759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6695…6f1abacked Spurs80c12,264$9,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,492.34759.6%28 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Magic1c12,037$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3729810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic72c10,981$7,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,903.779,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Spurs26c10,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40023245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc4a…87d4backed Magic74c10,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4003551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Magic60c9,780$5,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,832.851,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs53c9,538$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,438.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Magic75c8,995$6,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,746.0313250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b6…efecbacked Spurs58c8,579$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,579.011163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Magic15c8,422$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.8112040.8%49 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Spurs26c8,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.9731445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Magic73c8,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,879.9321951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Magic22c7,177$1,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,582.181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic72c7,078$5,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,113.213,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Spurs28c6,538$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,724.1955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic38c6,236$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.295,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Magic41c6,030$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca8…c951backed Spurs27c6,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3803026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs64c5,986$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.2373649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic17c5,853$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.523,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Magic72c5,633$4,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,055.9736741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Spurs45c5,286$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,908.3785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Magic73c5,228$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.2311354%61 W · 52 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic73c5,177$3,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,779.559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Spurs57c5,000$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,17048845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic8c5,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Spurs27c5,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,65044648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Spurs62c4,763$2,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.081,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic69c4,722$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,265.344,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic74c4,634$3,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,429.121,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Spurs69c4,409$3,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.9517441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Spurs26c4,388$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,247.468846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb2…0963backed Magic73c4,113$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Magic15c4,067$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.9389444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs26c4,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,96076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Magic23c3,965$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.612,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Magic71c3,959$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.2669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic71c3,896$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.212,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Spurs26c3,846$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,846.154040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Spurs26c3,783$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.2212541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Magic74c3,750$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7759260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc1…ffeebacked Spurs27c3,622$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.2236943.4%160 W · 209 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Magic73c3,593$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.1135651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Magic72c3,526$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.0648347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Magic71c3,521$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002642.3%11 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Magic73c3,500$2,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,558.051,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Spurs27c3,372$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.39851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs29c3,284$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.762,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x422b…093dbacked Spurs61c3,255$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.783360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Magic63c3,089$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.6539349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Spurs27c3,000$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,19043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Magic75c3,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2508361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0d…8bb7backed Spurs26c3,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2205872.4%42 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+40.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1c4…48d7backed Magic73c3,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.994165.9%27 W · 14 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Magic27c2,990$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Spurs45c2,864$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,575.081,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Spurs59c2,800$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.1722243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic73c2,702$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.152,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic1c2,650$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Magic38c2,620$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…49d8backed Magic10c2,591$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.123633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Spurs50c2,538$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.1246342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a49…4a43backed Spurs28c2,501$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.96933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Magic4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Spurs48c2,438$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.1214243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd36b…d4d4backed Spurs52c2,411$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.053259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeda…c986backed Spurs27c2,400$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7521957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Spurs34c2,356$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.161,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Magic1c2,355$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.291,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.