NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2763b2614084608538b87d1bf8ca7ebfa5ca7b1c033c49767df5eb2f98f6318

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Magic, Spurs
Resolved: Dec 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $694,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $710,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe20a…e469backed Magic	49c	602,962$294,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294,219.36	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Spurs	51c	536,137$274,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261,622.38	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Spurs	51c	23,686$12,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,606	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Magic	47c	21,815$10,253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,252.99	140	52.1%73 W · 67 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Spurs	51c	16,000$8,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,840	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Magic	49c	14,834$7,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,268.6	173	54.3%94 W · 79 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs	51c	14,071$7,225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,845.85	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7938…e2dcbacked Spurs	53c	9,748$5,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,587.69	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b4…44d0backed Spurs	51c	9,554$4,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,646.7	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.6wins	+0.24per pick	49cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87e8…979fbacked Spurs	52c	9,038$4,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,338.46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs	53c	6,604$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,103.77	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Spurs	54c	6,415$3,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,926.6	191	36.1%69 W · 122 L	-15.3wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Spurs	53c	6,323$3,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,997.15	104	51%53 W · 51 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Magic	48c	5,500$2,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,640	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d17…9c89backed Spurs	52c	3,846$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,846.15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Spurs	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470	194	48.5%94 W · 100 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5945…67cabacked Magic	48c	2,917$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-36%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Magic	48c	1,932$927 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.21	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs	52c	1,651$859 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$792.48	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Spurs	54c	1,574$850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$724.07	419	54.4%228 W · 191 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Spurs	54c	1,352$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.07	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs	51c	1,168$601 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$566.52	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	48c	1,144$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.95	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Magic	48c	1,019$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.53	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic	45c	1,015$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.75	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Spurs	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	488	45.3%221 W · 267 L	+18.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Spurs	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	154	61.7%95 W · 59 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic	46c	974.03$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.06	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Spurs	51c	638.59$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.91	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1493…5fb5backed Spurs	51c	600$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	62cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Magic	46c	589$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.94	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Spurs	52c	510$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.9	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Spurs	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2012…128fbacked Spurs	56c	408$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.44	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	44c	390$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.22	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Magic	45c	340.97$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.14	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Spurs	52c	296.15$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.15	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Magic	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Magic	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Spurs	53c	250$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.5	230	58.7%135 W · 95 L	+14.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Spurs	53c	237.74$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.74	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Magic	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Magic	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Magic	48c	202.08$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	324	50.6%164 W · 160 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Spurs	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Spurs	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	690	49.4%341 W · 349 L	-30.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Spurs	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	235	46.8%110 W · 125 L	-18.7wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Spurs	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Spurs	53c	188$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.36	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked Magic	48c	156.25$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7180…bdbabacked Spurs	53c	149.06$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.06	156	57.7%90 W · 66 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Spurs	52c	136.54$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.54	631	42%265 W · 366 L	-9.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Spurs	53c	132.08$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.08	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Spurs	53c	120$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.4	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Spurs	51c	119.99$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Spurs	51c	119.61$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.61	145	52.4%76 W · 69 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Spurs	52c	115.38$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.38	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Magic	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-4.6wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Magic	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Spurs	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	189	55%104 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a0…43cfbacked Spurs	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088b…bce1backed Magic	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x871a…e232backed Spurs	53c	96.89$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.54	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Magic	45c	95$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Spurs	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Spurs	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Spurs	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Magic	48c	84.4$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	90	51.1%46 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b15…a031backed Spurs	52c	77.54$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.22	126	57.9%73 W · 53 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Spurs	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x897d…90c9backed Spurs	53c	75.47$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.47	165	59.4%98 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Spurs	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Spurs	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	185	58.4%108 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Spurs	53c	47.04$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.94	244	52.5%128 W · 116 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Spurs	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	199	44.7%89 W · 110 L	-15.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc968…c59bbacked Spurs	53c	37.92$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.92	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Spurs	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x263f…c744backed Spurs	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Spurs	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Spurs	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic	48c	27.75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.32	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Magic	50c	26.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Magic	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	127	43.3%55 W · 72 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Spurs	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	81	49.4%40 W · 41 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x218e…e49dbacked Spurs	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	482	55%265 W · 217 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event