TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,307 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c26,565$13,379 inWon+$13,186.242,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under53c10,000$5,300 inWon+$4,699.9948448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Over50c9,798$4,899 inLost-$4,8993354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…321fbacked Over50c9,660$4,830 inLost-$4,830250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over50c8,321$4,161 inLost-$4,160.5852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over49c7,947$3,929 inLost-$3,929.022,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d17…9c89backed Over50c5,992$2,996 inLost-$2,996333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Under50c5,000$2,500 inWon+$2,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c4,659$2,350 inWon+$2,309.439,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54b3…69bebacked Over49c4,384$2,148 inLost-$2,148450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over47c3,500$1,645 inLost-$1,64548347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under52c1,923$1,000 inWon+$923.0840041.5%166 W · 234 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7938…e2dcbacked Over49c1,918$940 inLost-$940560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over49c1,836$900 inLost-$899.642,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f15…599fbacked Over47c1,340$630 inLost-$6301764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+29.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over47c1,169$550 inLost-$549.983,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Over49c1,100$539 inLost-$53919448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Under53c575$305 inWon+$270.2529458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over50c500$250 inLost-$2504650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Over47c325.49$153 inLost-$152.9835651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under50c311$156 inWon+$155.52,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c240.84$120 inLost-$120.14,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over49c204.08$100 inLost-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c203$95 inLost-$95.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Over48c199.98$96 inLost-$95.9928838.2%110 W · 178 L-18.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over50c186$93 inLost-$937047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Under52c115.38$60 inWon+$55.3817035.9%61 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over47c100$47 inLost-$471,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.1532853%174 W · 154 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c80.13$40 inWon+$40.072,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Over47c77$36 inLost-$36.1980148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce49…4740backed Over50c40$20 inLost-$2023642.4%100 W · 136 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.4624955%137 W · 112 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over47c23.76$11 inLost-$11.1752643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.