NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13950633cf819388582ec76bee8b2722073bba41382d78f1f32bff05b5f3a00a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spursof Magic, Spurs
Resolved: Dec 3, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,944 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs	45c	2,122$955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,166.86	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb5…cdb0backed Magic	57c	1,948$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.55	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	55c	1,567$866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.57	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Spurs	52c	1,000$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.03	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Spurs	44c	933.11$411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.54	73	47.9%35 W · 38 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs	46c	879$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.82	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic	48c	800$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.03	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	49c	706.37$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.3	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Magic	57c	570$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.9	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Spurs	43c	512.35$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.54	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Spurs	51c	400$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Spurs	45c	400$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Magic	55c	300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Magic	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	250	39.6%99 W · 151 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Spurs	43c	250$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.5	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Magic	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Magic	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7373…3964backed Magic	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Spurs	44c	149$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.29	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Magic	57c	109.92$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.65	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6881…525dbacked Spurs	45c	102.44$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.34	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Magic	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Spurs	46c	86.96$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.96	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Magic	58c	86.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	328	53%174 W · 154 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4b…14e2backed Spurs	75c	80$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	235	47.7%112 W · 123 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Spurs	43c	79.57$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.35	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic	54c	76.09$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.09	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Spurs	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1acc…35b7backed Magic	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Spurs	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Magic	57c	49.12$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Spurs	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	168	49.4%83 W · 85 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Spurs	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	484	51.2%248 W · 236 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9b…e74abacked Magic	57c	43.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	218	38.1%83 W · 135 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Spurs	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Spurs	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	99	41.4%41 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Spurs	50c	39.13$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.56	121	56.2%68 W · 53 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cec…39b3backed Magic	57c	36.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.30per pick	55cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Spurs	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea3…c0c3backed Magic	58c	25.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Magic	57c	23.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x426a…128bbacked Spurs	48c	22.24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.54	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-8.7wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Spurs	46c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	522	40%209 W · 313 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event