Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2951c8b51c389445974816a24e7938c8a0a9a0bc2926998218e7150a6f4f4e96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 6,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 71c | 5,325$3,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.39 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 36c | 3,472$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 72c | 1,431$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 64c | 977.72$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.98 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…05c8backed Yes | 32c | 892.13$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 713.95$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.06 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 23c | 691.52$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 71c | 639.01$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 70c | 378.51$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 260.75$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 63c | 250.27$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Yes | 28c | 225.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 211.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…95c4backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 71c | 195$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 36c | 143.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 13c | 120.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 112.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 109.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 29c | 102.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…08f1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 73c | 92.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…c07dbacked Yes | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf617…7ff1backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 30c | 34.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…b87ebacked No | 65c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw?this page
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-02?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-01-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.