AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd073547fabc603601c240da70e503780949568299520590e915d7e6ca8aa3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 32c | 2,587$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.93 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 5c | 1,195$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,194$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 744.53$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 72c | 521.82$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 73c | 416.3$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.68 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 14c | 409.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 13c | 383$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.87 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 3c | 318.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 316.28$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…d398backed Yes | 28c | 300$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.30per pick | 28cpaid | +122%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 71c | 298.45$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…3ebebacked No | 30c | 290$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 4c | 239.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 230$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 191.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed No | 16c | 191.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 69c | 186.32$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…892ebacked Yes | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 14c | 177.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 33c | 151.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 44c | 127.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…b4f3backed Yes | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 59c | 83.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…841fbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 63c | 43.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 28c | 43.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 70c | 42.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 75c | 35.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 30.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…16f6backed No | 75c | 28.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…7a94backed Yes | 74c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.