TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,522,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,522,226 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd9c4…6f95backed No43c378,212$162,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162,154.6516040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No42c211,026$89,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89,536.4919253.1%102 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8372…5223backed Yes58c180,142$104,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,172.56857.4%39 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes62c154,839$95,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,182.432,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9976…67dabacked No44c134,616$59,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,137.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Yes57c95,000$54,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,85016651.2%85 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes58c86,207$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,206.911445.6%52 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c8…5471backed Yes56c80,000$44,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,20014450.7%73 W · 71 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No42c80,000$33,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,599.813557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0792…b778backed No43c60,000$25,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,8002040%8 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes63c54,070$34,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,757.826,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Yes56c50,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+39.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed No39c40,338$15,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,821.24837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Yes57c40,000$22,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,199.971250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a1…b6babacked Yes58c34,483$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,482.761361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed No38c34,000$12,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,919.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-76.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes77c27,148$20,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,179.527235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes59c25,944$15,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,728.5228242.2%119 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed No42c25,500$10,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,709.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+31.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb529…ad06backed No41c23,865$9,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,685.944748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19cd…997abacked Yes58c22,675$13,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,438.57850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdafa…ca1abacked Yes57c21,770$12,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,343.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes57c21,610$12,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,231.012,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Yes57c21,272$12,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,146.95655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No42c18,687$7,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,848.669856.1%55 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes59c17,951$10,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,425.1310636.8%39 W · 67 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No43c17,325$7,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,449.7510057%57 W · 43 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes58c17,241$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,241.387229.2%21 W · 51 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed No43c16,986$7,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,303.9810246.1%47 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,45037054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed No42c13,032$5,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,473.311833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0f6…a05fbacked Yes58c12,934$7,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4321346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes57c12,797$7,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,498.31,22049.8%607 W · 613 L+4.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8386…7c5dbacked Yes58c12,069$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,068.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2682…582abacked Yes57c12,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2005442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No40c11,836$4,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,769.224146.9%113 W · 128 L+21.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Yes58c11,308$6,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,749.53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0389…3e49backed No42c10,570$4,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,439.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes57c10,526$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.324656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72c0…0982backed Yes58c10,517$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,417.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1009134.1%31 W · 60 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes74c10,000$7,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.474148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,099.9810236.3%37 W · 65 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Yes58c10,000$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.971060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed No41c10,000$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,099.921136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.9114258.5%83 W · 59 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Yes59c9,896$5,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,057.353339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe9…5e52backed No28c9,085$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,565.53145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27dd…c66abacked No42c9,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,780333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No41c8,900$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6491,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9e8…b5e3backed Yes58c8,852$5,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,717.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed No41c8,500$3,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,514.9416050.6%81 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes59c8,475$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.5817634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes57c8,000$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,44014544.8%65 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No42c7,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94013444.8%60 W · 74 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked No42c7,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes57c6,800$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9242339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Yes60c6,667$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.674240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d04…7a5fbacked No42c6,453$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,710.263351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed No18c6,067$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10011942%50 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No42c6,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52050644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked No42c5,942$2,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,495.644742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9913…21cfbacked Yes59c5,925$3,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.451145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Yes58c5,746$3,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.474233.3%14 W · 28 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d21…abc5backed Yes57c5,691$3,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.926543.1%28 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8b…6d8abacked Yes60c5,454$3,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.712433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No42c5,070$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.46550.8%33 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No41c5,051$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.755050%25 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Yes57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1502733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1501258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed No42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002544%11 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked No42c5,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1002646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed No41c5,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.9813151.1%67 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked No41c5,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,069.9310951.4%56 W · 53 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes57c4,500$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.9919239.1%75 W · 117 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes57c4,386$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.1115470.8%109 W · 45 L+22.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Yes57c4,386$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.961546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c73bbacked Yes57c4,185$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,799.551090%9 W · 1 L+4.4wins+0.44per pick46cpaid+121.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Yes57c3,948$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.6412949.6%64 W · 65 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x601a…a675backed Yes74c3,829$2,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.52540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes60c3,716$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.524,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed No40c3,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40045936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No43c3,451$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4844052.5%21 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Yes58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.285350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6231…84bbbacked No43c3,448$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.721250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No22c3,447$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.951,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Yes58c3,446$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.28425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e8…6300backed Yes58c3,444$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.43551.4%18 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes56c3,333$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.5218259.3%108 W · 74 L+14.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes73c3,041$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.336056.7%34 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23041437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7506048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes76c3,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9920646.1%95 W · 111 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes67c2,881$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.2761143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed No43c2,803$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.3620246.5%94 W · 108 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Yes75c2,667$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes59c2,636$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.5915757.3%90 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes57c2,632$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.579153.8%49 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed No41c2,563$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.84052.5%21 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+50.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No26c2,557$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.7856453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.