TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x520d…babebacked No9c2,850$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.511352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0232…2646backed No52c1,911$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No41c1,900$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.0418344.3%81 W · 102 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No20c1,741$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.2848236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes50c1,591$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.897125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No58c1,524$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.282045%9 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No31c1,449$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.7129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed No48c1,416$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.321752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x548b…8390backed Yes56c1,383$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.542839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-39.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10bc…0451backed Yes39c1,214$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes40c1,073$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.482030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes49c1,071$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.792934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked No61c1,046$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.941442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed Yes50c927$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick43cpaid-75.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No48c873$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.683652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes38c868.97$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.211323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes54c863$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.022540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No55c862$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.122045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes53c855$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.153132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes55c848$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.41822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes40c844$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.61250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987e…990dbacked No50c840$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes70c832.98$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.534434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…7763backed Yes39c831$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked No54c801$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes40c788$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.22729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No14c782.12$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.4626541.9%111 W · 154 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes35c781$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.3517821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No46c767$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.182846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes53c763$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.392934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No49c762$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.622369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+107.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No60c753$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.22445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes39c745$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.063727%10 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed No61c736$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.041450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes39c730$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes47c722$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.283246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…8cf7backed No61c694$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.661258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No47c678$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No25c674.72$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.83141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+77.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed No47c665$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes39c656$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.841346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes39c635$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.651533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed Yes54c633$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes53c632$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.961850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked Yes39c627$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No48c624$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.483056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No53c609$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.243240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes44c589$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.561741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df6…0f0fbacked Yes51c586$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+51.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes52c583$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.162339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No61c580$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.23256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Yes46c577$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.27922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No51c570$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.33745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes39c566$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.742450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes46c561.39$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3613130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No61c555$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.452828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked No51c539$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.117100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+172.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes49c535$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+85.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked No60c532$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.81369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No49c527$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.633253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No61c524$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.362955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed No61c519$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.41757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed No61c505$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.951650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No60c501$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.42123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed No58c499.89$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-57.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No48c493$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.362450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes52c491.31$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.482941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No55c486.72$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0828528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No51c485$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.652161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No62c475$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.172138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No48c472$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9424634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes52c472$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.441145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes39c466$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.743336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked No44c454.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.652642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes52c454$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.082152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb61…6696backed Yes54c453.13$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes54c445$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.32524%6 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-61.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed Yes39c443$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.772142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Yes39c443$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.771540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No41c430$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No61c426$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.143145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed Yes59c426$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.341353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No61c425$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.752437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No8c423.85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.79894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked No60c422$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+101.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No48c417$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.922850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed No45c416$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d2…6698backed No61c412$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.31030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes53c405$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.652623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes50c402.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.722560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed No61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes54c385.52$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.5610549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes52c384$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.684348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…932fbacked Yes54c374.24$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.852536%9 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No48c374$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.481963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed No61c370$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.32040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes52c368$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.362454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No46c362$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.48875%6 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+98.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6154…2b2bbacked Yes55c361.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed Yes54c361$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.942152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.