Movies · resolved market

Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74141c26955ac22c204d3d0fdca7d00869b6bbfd440c683e479a9092fd775fde

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $50,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0b7c…e313backed No	4c	2,305$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No	3c	2,103$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.17	65	20%13 W · 52 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed No	59c	1,460$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	10c	1,262$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.12	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	3c	1,141$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.72	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No	10c	1,077$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.7	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ff…106ebacked No	2c	1,062$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8029…9b12backed No	3c	930$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No	9c	917$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.53	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No	9c	780$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked No	9c	665$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	6c	663.89$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.85	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	39c	648$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.65	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No	6c	645.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x386f…3c28backed No	3c	573$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes	77c	551$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.73	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No	9c	551$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.59	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	49c	524$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.25	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	67c	468$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.55	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No	10c	431$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.1	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes	62c	407$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.66	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	40c	398$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.78	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed No	9c	385$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No	10c	373$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-5.2wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	28c	352.91$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.64	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	34c	345.93$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.58	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed No	23c	343$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.89	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	16c	318.61$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.97	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No	38c	317$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.89	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+64.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed No	10c	307$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No	38c	304$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.52	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	42c	300$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.6	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d36…06edbacked Yes	52c	300$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes	77c	293.75$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.36	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	42c	271$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.59	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No	9c	259$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes	62c	255.5$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.09	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed No	22c	240$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.54	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	47c	238$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.6	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No	10c	230$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.19per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed No	28c	217$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.76	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes	78c	211$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.42	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x630f…34cebacked No	5c	208.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+119.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Yes	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No	49c	198.6$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.38	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ca7…4050backed No	55c	171.42$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes	52c	165$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No	7c	152.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes	39c	152$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.72	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No	23c	137$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No	12c	125.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked No	48c	124$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.52	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+4.3wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cc5…aeb8backed No	50c	119$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes	80c	118$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.92	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	55c	118$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.66	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes	17c	108$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.64	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	50c	99.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No	50c	94$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a2…84f1backed No	48c	90$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked No	28c	89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.92	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-5.3wins	-0.28per pick	44cpaid	-75.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked No	44c	86$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34da…4656backed Yes	45c	80$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+77.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes	49c	77.29$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.43	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes	57c	77.19$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.19	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	15c	75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No	38c	74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.12	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No	48c	70$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed Yes	52c	70$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No	28c	67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	36c	60.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No	57c	56.71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.58	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No	48c	51$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c92…4744backed No	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes	52c	43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.64	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed No	48c	43$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes	80c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa4e4…ef6dbacked No	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d60…07e9backed Yes	42c	35.71$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.71	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	37c	35.71$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+4.0wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes	52c	35$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa67…4585backed No	48c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…5016backed No	48c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9b…1c56backed No	48c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No	38c	29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes	72c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.48	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	74c	14$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.58	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event