TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Emily Blunt be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,954 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes27c999.99$270 inLost-$2701457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No73c558.43$406 inWon+$152.482268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+120.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No78c500$389 inWon+$111.0226641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c346.74$17 inLost-$16.88894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost-$15.367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x225b…422abacked Yes4c300$11 inLost-$11.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No70c248.52$174 inWon+$74.4818444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes7c232.68$17 inLost-$16.8510244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…2940backed Yes6c208.57$13 inLost-$13425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes8c195$16 inLost-$15.63751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes8c188$15 inLost-$15.042832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes7c175.11$13 inLost-$13.0429926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d4b…39a0backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes8c170$14 inLost-$13.61833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes15c133.8$20 inLost-$20.0613135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Yes21c100$21 inLost-$212828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No77c100$77 inWon+$233253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No74c95.64$71 inWon+$24.6650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c92.99$73 inWon+$20.4287033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes34c66$23 inLost-$22.691,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No73c58.56$43 inWon+$15.811435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31f2…bcb8backed Yes20c50$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes25c40$10 inLost-$102045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes33c30.94$10 inLost-$10.095145.1%23 W · 28 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No75c15$11 inWon+$3.7514212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.