Movies · resolved market
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c37fbdf6b73ef0f9ee14a13f9655ab20fe1bb41032b16e5e781b36eb2f07e48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 1,206$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,013$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 27c | 1,003$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 13c | 876$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 23c | 653.76$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 568.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 560.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 77c | 515$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…422abacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 462$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 418$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 77c | 323$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…934abacked Yes | 7c | 287.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 78c | 279$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 78c | 243$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 22c | 235$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 22c | 232$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…2beebacked Yes | 7c | 219.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 31c | 216.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 10c | 215$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fd…bc7ebacked Yes | 7c | 208.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…9900backed Yes | 7c | 206.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed No | 78c | 204$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…e1d4backed Yes | 10c | 193.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +398.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 192$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…9dd3backed Yes | 22c | 192$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…1fd8backed Yes | 6c | 176.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked No | 77c | 175$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 45c | 166$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…23edbacked Yes | 7c | 158.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 9c | 140.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 21c | 139$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 132$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 22c | 128.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 13c | 124$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 12c | 92.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 92.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 26c | 89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed No | 76c | 67.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea45…e748backed Yes | 17c | 64.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…bfaebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 22c | 47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 40.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…a77bbacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 27.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Angelina LookingGlass be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Ayo Edebiri be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chase Infiniti be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Emily Blunt be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Glenn Close be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hailee Steinfeld be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Kate Hudson be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Laura Dern be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Mari Yamamoto be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Regina Hall be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Samantha Morton be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Teyana Taylor be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Thomasin McKenzie be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Tilda Swinton be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.