Movies · resolved market

Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14eab19f30abf462cc63a0abe7caa3437851ff13c3dfdf1f17106e2234fa001e

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $93,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $94,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,337 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7a61…af24backed No	23c	4,844$1,114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114.12	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+335.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No	8c	2,953$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.51	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No	10c	2,400$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.21per pick	9cpaid	+344.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes	45c	2,290$1,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,253.55	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No	58c	2,188$1,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.24	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	75c	2,008$1,502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.02	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes	44c	1,896$826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,070.28	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	10c	1,600$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed No	39c	1,465$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.35	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.7wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No	11c	1,454$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.94	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed No	70c	1,403$976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$976.44	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No	72c	1,144$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.68	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed Yes	61c	1,136$691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.4	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed Yes	64c	1,124$719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$404.64	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No	39c	1,071$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.69	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed No	39c	1,017$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.63	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No	39c	991$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.49	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed No	73c	969$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.37	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes	62c	960$595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.8	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-30%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No	38c	916$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.69	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x334a…832ebacked Yes	29c	838$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594.98	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.32per pick	35cpaid	+93.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked Yes	61c	838$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.82	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No	75c	809$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.75	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes	61c	796$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.44	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked No	37c	789$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.93	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	27c	774$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$565.02	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked No	36c	750$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes	26c	741$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$548.34	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed Yes	61c	736$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.04	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No	38c	725$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.5	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.2wins	-0.20per pick	44cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes	28c	710$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.2	7	100%7 W · 0 L	+3.9wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+172.7%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x06d8…4c30backed No	53c	709$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.61	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed No	67c	704$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.68	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	46c	677.19$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.36	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No	39c	668$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.52	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No	40c	625$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.77	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked No	44c	614$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked Yes	62c	594$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.72	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked Yes	63c	582$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.34	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No	37c	579$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.23	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No	36c	573$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.28	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked No	40c	552$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.8	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes	60c	552$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.8	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No	38c	551$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.38	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes	63c	546$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.02	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	55c	539$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.71	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes	61c	539$329 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.21	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes	59c	527$310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.95	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes	60c	526$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.4	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No	71c	521$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.91	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-6.1wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes	64c	518$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.48	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes	61c	512$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.68	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed No	39c	510$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.9	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	34c	507.97$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.13	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes	28c	470$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.4	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-3.0wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No	57c	467$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.19	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No	36c	465$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.4	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes	17c	435$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$361.05	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes	61c	428$261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.92	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes	64c	413$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.68	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes	61c	413$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.07	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked Yes	17c	413$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.79	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.7wins	+0.25per pick	30cpaid	+94.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes	75c	410.77$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.55	25	60%15 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes	63c	402$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.4	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	73c	400.08$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.53	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes	62c	398$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.24	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No	79c	393.91$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.42	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Yes	61c	390$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.1	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.4wins	-0.38per pick	60cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes	61c	367$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.13	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No	36c	366$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.76	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes	32c	362$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$246.16	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes	63c	347$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.39	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x130f…fc43backed No	37c	347$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.39	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.6wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Yes	43c	346$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.22	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+4.8wins	+0.16per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No	49c	337$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.87	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No	37c	327.08$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.22	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes	63c	313$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.81	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	79c	312.27$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.45	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes	25c	303$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.25	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No	37c	300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-37%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes	61c	295$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.05	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed No	39c	295$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.05	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	43c	290.1$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.93	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes	27c	287$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.28	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes	63c	281$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.97	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked No	37c	281$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.97	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No	74c	281$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.94	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713f…22ccbacked Yes	23c	276.15$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.92	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.17per pick	29cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes	61c	269$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.91	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	36c	263.19$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.07	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes	62c	262$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.56	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No	39c	258$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.62	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes	62c	257$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.66	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	27c	230$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.3	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes	60c	230$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked Yes	46c	214$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.56	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes	62c	214$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.37	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes	17c	206$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.98	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes	28c	198$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.56	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+5.6wins	+0.21per pick	44cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd5d3…a77bbacked No	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event