TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Regina Hall be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d7…b035backed Yes10c2,222$225 inLost-$224.6317821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes11c1,305$148 inLost-$147.5512923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4028…7de4backed Yes17c920.65$160 inLost-$1602114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed Yes3c546.04$16 inLost-$16.383411.8%4 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes8c501$40 inLost-$40.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes4c499$18 inLost-$17.7429926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes7c400$28 inLost-$284434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes15c343.95$52 inLost-$51.6614015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c285.9$10 inLost-$10.25894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes17c226$38 inLost-$38.424348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes17c216$37 inLost-$36.722147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes12c200$25 inLost-$24.6713740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c180$29 inLost-$28.867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes17c148$26 inLost-$25.721,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed Yes17c146$25 inLost-$24.821735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes17c144$24 inLost-$24.482343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+97.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fc…6587backed Yes19c137.16$25 inLost-$25.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…4e46backed Yes11c95.51$11 inLost-$10.751717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c92$12 inLost-$11.991,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes14c87.75$12 inLost-$11.9413135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes17c81$14 inLost-$13.772133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes15c78.92$12 inLost-$11.911729.4%5 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.