Movies · resolved market

Will Chase Infiniti be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb042644dcc644db364674d39fde65db3b8db3681c94614619836bab52395e95

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $115,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $136,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,762 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2137…0677backed Yes	2c	19,892$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+7.0wins	+0.10per pick	25cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	2c	6,454$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.39	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes	7c	5,630$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	1c	3,909$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.68	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Yes	2c	2,842$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.29	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	1c	2,165$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.19	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	2c	2,074$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.14	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes	1c	2,017$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+59.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Yes	2c	1,560$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.16	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+4.6wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes	1c	1,405$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3277…be5fbacked Yes	2c	1,255$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	1,077$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.88	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes	1c	1,017$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	120	30%36 W · 84 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	1c	970.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	874.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	732.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes	2c	723.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	50	44%22 W · 28 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	4c	709.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	47	2.1%1 W · 46 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-78%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes	1c	687.08$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	+164.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	493.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked Yes	7c	250$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	35cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes	48c	214$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.72	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.8wins	+0.22per pick	46cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	5c	194.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	10c	145.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	9c	136$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed No	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed Yes	22c	90$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	66c	86.1$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.02	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No	46c	41.28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.21	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+335.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Chase Infiniti be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event