Movies · resolved market

Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f470d4f9b647ad6b2bfd12e75174a478aeeda94a2158037a8cc331a2b7fa81b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,982

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,416 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x04d7…b035backed No	22c	5,947$1,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,309.81	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	19c	3,502$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.74	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	11c	2,142$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.29	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	12c	1,890$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.89	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	68c	1,651$1,119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$531.76	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7007…5535backed No	20c	1,023$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7762…309ebacked No	11c	910$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b7c…e313backed No	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No	11c	875.52$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.37	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	54c	749.81$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.93	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x548b…8390backed No	11c	636.36$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No	9c	633$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.97	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	10c	560.51$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.05	201	3.5%7 W · 194 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	72c	555$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.4	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No	20c	549.44$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.4	57	26.3%15 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	52c	525$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.32	266	41.7%111 W · 155 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No	9c	521$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.89	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed No	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.97	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	9c	495.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.97	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No	9c	436$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed Yes	72c	427$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.56	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No	8c	405.01$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.35	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	51c	322$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.9	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	14c	305.96$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.22	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x714e…beeebacked No	16c	305.01$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.11	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	80c	291.85$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.53	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	10c	271.04$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.1	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No	9c	259$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes	61c	251$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.51	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No	11c	243$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes	35c	242$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.3	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7d…d9fcbacked No	28c	228$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.84	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed No	64c	219$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.16	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No	43c	213$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.39	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-44%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	66c	210.69$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.76	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	30c	200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed No	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	61	4.9%3 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba54…409fbacked No	24c	199.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.12per pick	34cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	13c	197.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No	28c	194$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.32	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	11c	190.32$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes	80c	187.5$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	78	39.7%31 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No	65c	168$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No	44c	167$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.33	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No	9c	166$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+8.3wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+61.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	28c	160$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.35	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes	36c	160$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.4	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	12c	159.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	27c	155.92$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.36	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes	52c	150$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	237	41.4%98 W · 139 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes	56c	149$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.56	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed No	20c	145$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No	26c	133.41$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes	57c	133$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.19	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-42%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No	10c	122$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe627…e145backed No	31c	120$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11f…2d2cbacked No	44c	113$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.72	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes	56c	112$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.44	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes	55c	111$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.95	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.8wins	+0.22per pick	46cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No	10c	102$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No	35c	101$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.91	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc677…677abacked No	11c	97.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-77%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed No	27c	94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	28c	81.19$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.85	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No	48c	78$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.7	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	70c	71$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.59	125	39.2%49 W · 76 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No	48c	70.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.03	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes	73c	70.21$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.11	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes	65c	63$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.05	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No	22c	63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes	78c	63$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.86	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9340backed No	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes	57c	60$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.8	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes	36c	59$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.76	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes	62c	51.76$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.89	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	54c	51$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.46	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	63c	50$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.5	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Yes	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked Yes	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes	56c	47$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.68	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No	45c	43.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.75	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	30c	42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.21	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	101	39.6%40 W · 61 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event