TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6034…b5fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+133.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$167.66
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$685.44
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$99.12
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.52
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.84
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$155.49
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.8
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$415.36
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+98.8%+$594.85
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$696Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+39.7%+$276.36
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$311.88
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$147.85
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$152.04
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$174.72
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$190.3
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$341.14
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$203.35
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$95.48
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$338Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$338.14
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$271.4
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$78.32
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$203.32
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.9
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$71.68
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$235.62
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$19.74
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+81.8%+$211.95
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$68.62
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$44.16
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+73.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+525%+$534.24
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+31.6%+$88.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$68.6
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+53.8%+$17.85
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+56.3%+$18
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$24.77
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+72.4%+$187.32
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+50%+$33.65
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick35cpaid+119.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Comeback" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$23.94
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+143.9%+$345.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?backed Even · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$488.06
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$516.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$51.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$108.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$488.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.