Weather · resolved market
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde32b0d95a6a7e4e3d7b47f142795101081e60299bb682b2e4095a6886f8c8fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e4e…6533backed Yes | 32c | 892$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 873.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 65c | 862$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 861.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 11c | 846$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 35c | 844$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 12c | 815$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 21c | 738$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 4c | 698.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…0d2abacked Yes | 4c | 647.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed No | 64c | 614$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked No | 68c | 586$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 36c | 572$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 78c | 488$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 79c | 427$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 379.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 68c | 335$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 11c | 332$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 20c | 331$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 80c | 331$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 304.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 64c | 297$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 36c | 286$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked Yes | 22c | 270.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 22c | 249$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes | 22c | 239$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa602…feccbacked Yes | 10c | 192.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 35c | 187$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 180.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 79c | 175$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 167.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 11c | 164$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 79c | 136$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 129.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 65c | 118$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…9dedbacked Yes | 21c | 63.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 65c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 42.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.