Weather · resolved market
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b0dfb5cb1237c64bc8d8d5037a9361456241e5a17216e7a2bebae2c2e63bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $378,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 363 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a4a…e370backed Yes | 1c | 10,570$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e88…679fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,570$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…8ed3backed Yes | 1c | 7,590$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…598cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,590$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…0643backed Yes | 1c | 6,751$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 66c | 2,285$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 74c | 2,023$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.21 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 57c | 1,809$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 42c | 1,764$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 57c | 1,654$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,653$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked No | 55c | 1,598$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 60c | 1,526$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,513$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 59c | 1,508$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 58c | 1,442$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 39c | 1,431$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.83 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 55c | 1,349$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 41c | 1,324$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +143.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…3dfcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,323$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,299$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 45c | 1,279$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 45c | 1,263$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 64c | 1,231$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 39c | 1,196$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…dceabacked Yes | 1c | 1,196$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 60c | 1,187$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed No | 67c | 1,164$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 15c | 1,156$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 79c | 1,152$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 45c | 1,141$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 55c | 1,128$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 62c | 1,075$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.63 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 43c | 1,062$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 33c | 1,061$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 55c | 1,057$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.65 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,056$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 45c | 1,055$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 55c | 1,043$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 45c | 1,037$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 38c | 1,028$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed No | 64c | 1,027$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed No | 56c | 1,026$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 43c | 1,019$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 32c | 1,009$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 67c | 996$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 44c | 994$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 38c | 994$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 42c | 966$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 57c | 957.89$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 45c | 955$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 58c | 950$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 32c | 944$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 57c | 937$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab02…f76bbacked Yes | 34c | 928.03$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 38c | 925$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.13 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 43c | 916$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 38c | 915$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 34c | 904$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 54c | 899.9$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +168.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 41c | 894$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 55c | 890$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 45c | 869$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 55c | 862$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 861.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 37c | 860$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 61c | 855$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 44cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 45c | 852.41$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 44c | 836$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 33c | 833$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 44c | 823$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked No | 66c | 800$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 37c | 794$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 45c | 793$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 41c | 793$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 57c | 785$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed Yes | 35c | 776$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 55c | 759$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 57c | 753$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 63c | 752$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 42c | 751.72$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed No | 60c | 744$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 45c | 742$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 55c | 737$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.65 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 38c | 734$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 45c | 725$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 39c | 723$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 55c | 720$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…af79backed No | 62c | 713$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 68c | 702$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 41c | 701$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 40c | 690$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 65c | 685$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 69c | 681$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 32c | 654$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 13c | 654$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 32c | 634$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 64c | 630.27$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.1 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 62c | 630$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 67c | 623$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.