TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa05d…3e96

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
170
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT4235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+41%+$47.43
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.85
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.18
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+56%+$11.49
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+403.1%+$108.97
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.96
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.15
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$831Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$449.56
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.49
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.19
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$128.51
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.09
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+111.2%+$29.48
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.16
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.08
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.23
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$131.04
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$62.47
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$19.5
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.24
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+99.6%+$36.43
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.6
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$63.02
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$161.54
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$100.64
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.77
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$123.38
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$181.78
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$24.08
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.95
Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.3
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$86.26
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$48.26
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.48
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$45.36
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$124.02
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+270.4%+$96.36
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$42.78
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$132.08
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+61.3%+$6.84
Will In Your Dreams be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+27.1%+$52.65
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+303.2%+$578.29
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.35
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$142.2
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$54
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$116.8
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$148.5
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$102.96
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2020%4 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-56.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.04
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.8
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.07
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.92
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$214.2
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$925Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$924.95
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$160.6
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$66.64
Will the US strike Syria next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$185Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+37%+$68.58
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+143.9%+$17.11
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$409.21
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.72
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by December 29, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$53.76
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$18.86
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$77.14
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$105.45
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$52.64
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+122.2%+$17.6
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20.91
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$807Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+37%+$298.62
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.12
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.14
Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$114.48
Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.9
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$46.74
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.74
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+194.1%+$180.18
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+64.4%+$115.2
Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$164.56
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$66.24
Will Cornyn flip Paxton for Texas Rep Senate Primary Winner by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71.94
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$404Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$403.9
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$41.5
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$837Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+30.8%+$257.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$79.52
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+407.8%+$113.23
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$315.84
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$742Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+81.8%+$607.05
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$125.6
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$295.67
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$837Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$836.93
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12.31
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$71.32
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$41.04
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$19.32
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.2
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.33
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.32
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29.4
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+112.8%+$243.27
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$83.82
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+127.3%+$29.12
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+177.8%+$58.24
Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$13.08
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+51.5%+$6.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$248.85
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.93
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$41.6
Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11.14
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$55.72
Trove FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.95
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+60.7%+$325.85
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+42.9%+$142.8
Over $12M committed to the Space public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$26.16
Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28.14
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.15
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$149
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$603.88
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+244.8%+$110.05
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$196.61
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52.19
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$170.09
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$24.5
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+40.8%+$9.86
Will the Israel–Iran conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "2026" this week? (January 18)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+222.6%+$24.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+52.3%+$144.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+42.9%+$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leon Thomas win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$95.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyron Woodley win his boxing match against Anderson Silva?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$35.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.