TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,723

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 337 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44d…935cbacked No71c4,981$3,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.7617162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes33c4,345$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.9339435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No30c2,123$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,49395641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed Yes74c1,888$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.422060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No30c1,726$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.541250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes73c1,576$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.192441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes76c1,426$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.762142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed No22c1,395$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.11560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7485…b217backed No24c1,262$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.12560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes70c1,220$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.593050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed No47c1,192$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.533951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No26c1,181$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.943033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked No43c1,000$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.623138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No18c973$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.861442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No31c960$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.41833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes74c932$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Yes60c920.78$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.9620356.7%115 W · 88 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No22c890$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes49c855.26$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.8626336.5%96 W · 167 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes75c837$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes69c822$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.183357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked No31c820$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.81421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes78c816$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.481942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No24c814$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.641163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+79.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes69c813$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.972642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x668b…3884backed No31c772$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.681040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb82…c668backed Yes65c765.83$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes75c765$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.751442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x334a…832ebacked Yes78c765$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed No31c762$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.782152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes76c752.49$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.629516.8%16 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…e392backed Yes76c743$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.681127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-51.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed No25c739$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.251643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes76c737$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.12450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+283.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No41c699.98$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.9995848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No24c685$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.62450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Yes76c671$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.961172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes73c667$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.143148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes74c644$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.561747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed No26c644$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.561942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No24c637$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.121250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd70b…a152backed No31c634$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.461338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked Yes76c630$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.81526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes74c619$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.061741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No30c607$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.92450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No24c589$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.641275%9 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+50%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes76c585.99$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.222041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes69c583$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.27540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed No22c581$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.181861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes76c580$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-60.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes78c575$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed No18c560$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+55.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes78c541$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.981931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-46.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked No18c535$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.71338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd286…d20ebacked No18c521$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked No26c520$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.82254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No24c513$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.881145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes74c497$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.782030%6 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked No24c496$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.962045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked No25c489$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.751435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed No80c484.51$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.526639.4%26 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8f…4dc1backed Yes79c474.19$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.031560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No79c470$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.052339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No18c462$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.842236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x850e…08b3backed Yes68c441$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.881323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No18c437$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.341752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked No24c437$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.121060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+67.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes71c434$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.33141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No22c429$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.622744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes47c415$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.61942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe4…5504backed No23c409.04$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.29875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+61.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes76c404.38$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.331,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed No24c404$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.041040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No22c398$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.442445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No21c392$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.122356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes69c391.98$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8310542.9%45 W · 60 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12e3…dbd4backed Yes76c389$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.641855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ba…8e5cbacked No62c388.98$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-73.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes77c388$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.762147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked No31c372$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.681540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No74c363.05$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.156048.3%29 W · 31 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes74c362.4$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.4435049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes61c362.12$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1122750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked No31c358$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.02944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed No25c356$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2671850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9efe…d947backed No23c356$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes55c344.18$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19019047.4%90 W · 100 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No29c344$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.052035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed No22c338$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes74c337$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.712356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7166…f815backed Yes69c337$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed No26c333$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.423151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No26c330$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.22955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes74c330$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.22766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Yes46c329.09$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1719747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9e…bd49backed No26c318$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.321080%8 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+103.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes74c317$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.581827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-62.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe243…79f7backed Yes24c315.05$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.64140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked No25c303$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.25850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+75.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes76c295$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.21266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+51%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.