TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Denver Nuggets make the NBA Playoffs?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,451 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d16…d24dbacked No4c14,530$567 inLost-$566.698961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No0c3,662$12 inLost-$12.177915.2%12 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No4c2,522$88 inLost-$88.3122243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c1,352$11 inLost-$10.53440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe788…2c65backed No2c1,145$18 inLost-$17.65100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e2…1470backed No2c1,071$25 inLost-$2570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No10c997$99 inLost-$98.72454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No1c854.92$11 inLost-$11.222615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed No10c807$80 inLost-$79.892944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304e…bdf0backed No3c630.01$19 inLost-$18.786026.7%16 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed No2c537.96$12 inLost-$11.7810548.6%51 W · 54 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c530.91$20 inLost-$20.471,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0986…9c4bbacked No5c521.38$28 inLost-$2819649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No10c508$50 inLost-$50.294334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed No4c457.75$17 inLost-$16.960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No5c436.85$24 inLost-$23.7518246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed No10c417$41 inLost-$41.282050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No10c416$41 inLost-$41.182564%16 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7cc7…8211backed No10c396$39 inLost-$39.21650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed No10c355$35 inLost-$35.152653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No10c275$27 inLost-$27.232548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked No7c264.85$17 inLost-$17.562848.7%306 W · 322 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed No10c242$24 inLost-$23.962259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No10c212$21 inLost-$20.993135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No10c202$20 inLost-$202657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked No10c139$14 inLost-$13.762050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No10c120$12 inLost-$11.883240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.