TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the New Orleans Pelicans make the NBA Playoffs?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$99,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,922 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd894…d0b2backed Yes6c16,945$960 inLost-$96050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e4a…ba69backed Yes1c4,858$34 inLost-$34.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa766…4eb5backed Yes1c4,858$34 inLost-$34.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,213$40 inLost-$40.331,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c3,800$36 inLost-$35.917915.2%12 W · 67 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c3,673$141 inLost-$140.975913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2add…32e3backed Yes1c1,486$13 inLost-$13.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe788…2c65backed Yes1c982.38$12 inLost-$11.89100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes5c843.7$42 inLost-$42.1922750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes4c703.89$27 inLost-$27.2622243.7%97 W · 125 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes5c504$27 inLost-$26.941428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-39.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd828…a3b2backed Yes4c367.5$15 inLost-$14.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes13c350$45 inLost-$45190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c350$12 inLost-$12.360834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes17c300.8$52 inLost-$51.7518536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes13c200$25 inLost-$256934.8%24 W · 45 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes13c190$24 inLost-$24.295754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c150$10 inLost-$10.315010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes14c144.24$20 inLost-$20.45839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c69.33$12 inLost-$11.791,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.