TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2375…691fbacked No18c2,748$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.9724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No20c2,171$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.0948236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No17c1,640$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2129926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No25c1,453$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.72254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed No29c1,375$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No25c1,322$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.281435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes74c1,319$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.392352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked No23c1,270$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.11936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x963a…f044backed No20c1,215$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+115.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes76c1,207$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.983145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed No26c1,118$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes74c1,097$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.225345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No25c1,058$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.52147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec4…1868backed No68c1,024$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked Yes75c970$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.223847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Yes74c958$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.081250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes77c936$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.282540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes75c885$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.252352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No24c853$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.721030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes77c845$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.353256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed Yes75c842$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed No24c829$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.963638.9%14 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed Yes77c825$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.752055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked Yes76c823$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.521338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes74c820$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.21729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No25c804$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes74c784$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.122832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed Yes77c779$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.173250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed Yes75c765$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.253063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed No26c762$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.122356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes76c753$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.92466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes78c752.08$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.282941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes74c752$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.523452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed No25c744$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1861457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes74c726$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.764348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed Yes75c725$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.251957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed Yes79c721$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes75c715$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.753234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes75c702$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.53056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+87.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No25c672$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.513740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed No26c663$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.382133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked No23c654$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.421435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes76c650$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…9dd3backed No25c645$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes75c645$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.252171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+90.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes75c638.41$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.272931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No24c628$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.723256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed No27c624$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.41931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No21c615$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.852626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No29c612$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.483141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes76c595$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.83951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No24c585$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.563138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes74c584$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.842035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes77c567$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.412653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No23c563$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.492254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed No25c554$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.51573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+86.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No24c549.04$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.587136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes71c544$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.762055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked No32c528$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.961442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes71c524$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.962642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No25c519$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.752128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes20c515.67$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.536541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No28c512$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.362152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No18c509$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.623141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes70c504$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.21250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10028528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked No26c499$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.742138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No20c490.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.639021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes71c486$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.633154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed No25c484$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes75c479$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.751650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5baa…0ec6backed No30c465$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-62.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes79c456.6$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7113650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No32c453$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.891250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Yes68c445.8$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.661361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No25c441$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.251850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed No26c441$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.661266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+73%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed Yes74c439$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.142147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes77c437$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.511850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes75c430$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.57100%7 W · 0 L+3.9wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+172.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes77c418$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.164645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No26c411$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.863240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed No23c409$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.071947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed No27c406$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.622638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes72c401$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.282642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No29c395$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.983743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No27c392$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.842352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No26c391$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.663145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes71c389$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.812737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No30c383$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.71428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed No30c379$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.71540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No25c376$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes75c376$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed No24c354$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.022142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked Yes74c349$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.741353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No26c348$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.482646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes73c344$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.883253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes75c343$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No22c342$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.242450%12 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No25c340$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.