Movies · resolved market

Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5a5a07259910af95d33591f8847f07702f9d4785729a3141bd1823f0cdcebdd

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,691

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,515 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0a45…9d4abacked Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	+8.8wins	+0.13per pick	28cpaid	+68.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No	76c	534$406 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.16	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No	71c	524$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.26	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No	67c	512$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.96	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+64.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes	30c	429$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.7	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9203…a525backed No	74c	405.76$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.4	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes	25c	360.12$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.03	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes	24c	350$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes	38c	349$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.62	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90e2…7babbacked Yes	29c	342$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.18	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+44%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No	70c	338$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.4	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes	33c	336$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.88	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa67…4585backed No	41c	300$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed Yes	30c	297$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.1	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No	75c	296$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.3	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed Yes	29c	295.6$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.02	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc80…7bd2backed No	70c	290$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No	62c	289$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.5	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	32c	276$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.6	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No	75c	249$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.25	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No	62c	227$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.26	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No	73c	205$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.35	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed No	71c	195$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.86	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No	62c	192$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.96	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No	73c	186$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.22	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes	30c	184$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes	25c	181$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes	24c	173$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.52	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No	71c	173$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.24	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes	27c	172$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.44	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes	24c	155.09$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.22	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.8wins	+0.22per pick	46cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	73c	155$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.85	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes	29c	152$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.08	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No	63c	149$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.66	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes	25c	143$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.75	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	30c	136$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.35	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes	29c	135$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.15	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked No	70c	130$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes	27c	119$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.13	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No	71c	114$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.06	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes	24c	113$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	30c	105$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No	76c	104$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.96	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes	38c	103$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.14	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked Yes	33c	101$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507c…5016backed Yes	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.53	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes	38c	98$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed No	74c	95.4$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.05	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	67cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No	75c	94$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes	39c	92$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.88	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	38c	87$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.06	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No	61c	86$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.54	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes	38c	83$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed No	70c	81$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.45	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes	33c	75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed No	70c	72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.6	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes	29c	72$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes	30c	70$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+4.3wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No	70c	70$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No	70c	70$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes	30c	66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked No	70c	66$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6348…0fafbacked No	80c	64.49$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.05	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No	61c	58$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.88	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes	36c	57.01$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No	70c	53$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.9	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+3.4wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+65%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbcca…da80backed Yes	26c	53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No	61c	53$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.67	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed No	62c	53$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	28c	52.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22ea…8422backed Yes	47c	51.55$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-4.6wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes	39c	47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No	61c	45$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c92…4744backed Yes	59c	45$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.55	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes	29c	42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	68c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4e4…ef6dbacked Yes	59c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.2wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e9b…1c56backed Yes	59c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	57c	32$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.76	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d36…06edbacked Yes	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…84f1backed Yes	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes	40c	26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	46	54.3%25 W · 21 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No	71c	20.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.06	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed No	75c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.75	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Orwell: 2+2=5 be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event