Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5383a3c0e1692c25b7e14439f2e74c2b275b53070f50e1960b1e99b8b3c165fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 6,397$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 28c | 5,599$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.09 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 8c | 4,662$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.46 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 69c | 3,876$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.46 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 2,617$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.35 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 35c | 2,123$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.14 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 1,954$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 32c | 1,909$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 62c | 1,820$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.91 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 34c | 1,770$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.39 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 30c | 1,670$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.56 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 39c | 1,600$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 1,582$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 70c | 1,566$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.78 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 25c | 1,556$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…245dbacked No | 26c | 1,524$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 61c | 1,514$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,489$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +88%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 1,474$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.76 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 21c | 1,439$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.51 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…9621backed No | 12c | 1,409$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.37per pick | 26cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked No | 44c | 1,381$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,378$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 1,337$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 37c | 1,318$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 63c | 1,263$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…f412backed No | 39c | 1,244$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 66c | 1,241$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.23 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 8c | 1,219$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 9c | 1,192$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 36c | 1,178$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 56c | 1,176$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 8c | 1,107$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 1,100$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed No | 29c | 1,089$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked No | 31c | 1,075$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.66 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 8c | 1,075$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 1,058$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 44c | 1,032$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 16c | 1,027$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 1,024$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 14c | 1,019$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba44…b067backed No | 25c | 1,010$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 44c | 1,007$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 1,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…c06fbacked No | 5c | 999.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 54c | 989$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 43c | 966$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 29c | 959$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.11 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 71c | 953$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 32c | 941$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 44c | 938$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 29c | 936$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 21c | 905.32$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe27…9623backed Yes | 61c | 892$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 29c | 881$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 29c | 880$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…f792backed Yes | 75c | 849.98$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 849.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 43c | 808$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 71c | 807$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.03 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 56c | 807$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed Yes | 71c | 807$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…27cbbacked No | 12c | 802.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Yes | 56c | 801$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 49c | 784.51$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.08 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 71c | 778$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 44c | 768$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 64c | 756$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 56c | 756$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 44c | 754$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 65c | 724$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 57c | 720$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.01 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 74c | 717.87$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.32 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 71c | 714$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 29c | 714$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes | 71c | 710$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 71c | 701$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.29 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…521cbacked No | 27c | 697.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 29c | 688$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 29c | 688$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 63c | 673$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 56c | 648$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 71c | 639$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.31 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed No | 34c | 639$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 24c | 637.76$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed No | 7c | 625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked No | 12c | 625$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 71c | 621$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 29c | 617$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 44c | 613$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 37c | 600$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked Yes | 63c | 593$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 35c | 582$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…8084backed No | 24c | 552.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 76c | 546.6$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.13 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed Yes | 71c | 536$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 71c | 530$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 66c | 526$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?this page
- Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.