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Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 450 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c6,397$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.812438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed No28c5,599$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.098641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No8c4,662$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4615629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes69c3,876$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.4636750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No34c2,617$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.3564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No35c2,123$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.1417740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c1,954$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.247135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No32c1,909$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.012751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes62c1,820$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.9127643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed No34c1,770$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.3915743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No30c1,670$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.567051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No39c1,600$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6281060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No7c1,582$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.362217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes70c1,566$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.788145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77a4…c84fbacked No25c1,556$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe529…245dbacked No26c1,524$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes61c1,514$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes68c1,489$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+88%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c1,474$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7667841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No21c1,439$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.5142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf2…9621backed No12c1,409$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.37per pick26cpaid+115.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked No44c1,381$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes57c1,378$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.54666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c1,337$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.924625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed No37c1,318$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.681442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes63c1,263$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.223847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed No39c1,244$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.211040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed Yes66c1,241$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.232128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No8c1,219$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5522547.1%106 W · 119 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No9c1,192$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed No36c1,178$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.171546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes56c1,176$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.441526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No8c1,107$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.71430.7%1 W · 142 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-92.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No7c1,100$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.52476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No29c1,089$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.811163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick38cpaid+109.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No31c1,075$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.662161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+92.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No8c1,075$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.915313.2%7 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c1,058$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc187…bdf1backed No44c1,032$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.08875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No16c1,027$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7937740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c1,024$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.451,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No14c1,019$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7215436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba44…b067backed No25c1,010$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc03…cd5cbacked No44c1,007$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.08633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c1,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.34195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffdd…c06fbacked No5c999.15$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.983243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes54c989$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.042254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed No43c966$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No29c959$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.111822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes71c953$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No32c941$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.972437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No44c938$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No29c936$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.44933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No21c905.32$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.977851.3%40 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed Yes61c892$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.23666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+142.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No29c881$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.491540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked No29c880$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.21241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…f792backed Yes75c849.98$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No14c849.09$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed No43c808$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes71c807$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.032835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes56c807$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8465…6cd7backed Yes71c807$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.03650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked No12c802.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes56c801$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes49c784.51$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.0814940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes71c778$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.621526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No44c768$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked Yes64c756$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.161136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes56c756$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.641050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed No44c754$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.761361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+35.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes65c724$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.41145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes57c720$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.012653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes74c717.87$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.327448.6%36 W · 38 L+9.7wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+156.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes71c714$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+56.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No29c714$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes71c710$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.9944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes71c701$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.292763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5e6a…521cbacked No27c697.66$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No29c688$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.521752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No29c688$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.522347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes63c673$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes56c648$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.121540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes71c639$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.311968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.23per pick45cpaid+81.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No34c639$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No24c637.76$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6616651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5527…4e68backed No7c625$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xece0…7cdfbacked No12c625$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes71c621$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.091442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No29c617$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.931855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x755e…7b04backed No44c613$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.721353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+72.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No5c600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299031.1%28 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+69.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No37c600$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2222035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked Yes63c593$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.411330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No35c582$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.740%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed No24c552.48$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes76c546.6$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1312138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed Yes71c536$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.44650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes71c530$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes66c526$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.432138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.