Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7624423bed30c44c9696eb0a5f3ae07c9f04941d4ce654ac68e062bf3ec15357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 1c | 17,440$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.46 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 3c | 14,393$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.69 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 76c | 4,230$3,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.22 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 25c | 3,846$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.86 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 2c | 2,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf5…e03bbacked No | 0c | 2,839$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 12c | 2,181$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.99 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 12c | 1,984$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.41 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,510$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 1,462$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…84fabacked No | 24c | 1,255$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 1,233$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 3c | 1,228$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 20c | 1,124$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,039$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.14 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 13c | 991.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 893.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 18c | 844.63$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.03 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed No | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3298…8bc5backed No | 26c | 772.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 14c | 747.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…cf81backed No | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad5…6836backed No | 22c | 699.5$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0196…d9f9backed No | 29c | 690$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 15c | 658.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed No | 10c | 634.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 614.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…c3f2backed No | 19c | 593.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…862ebacked No | 17c | 583.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70d…a6f9backed Yes | 80c | 564.09$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6214…db12backed No | 18c | 546.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 545.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 498.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 21c | 484.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 23c | 474.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…adecbacked No | 19c | 472.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 457.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 76c | 449.81$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 447.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 441.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 16c | 428.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 12c | 356.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…dc7abacked No | 28c | 352.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…c75bbacked No | 24c | 344.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…3793backed No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…546dbacked No | 19c | 329.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…9e77backed No | 23c | 326.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 319.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 33c | 303.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 75c | 301$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 15c | 292.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 18c | 289.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 286.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 10c | 281.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 72c | 281$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…e301backed No | 23c | 277.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…9dd5backed No | 36c | 275.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 20c | 236.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 19c | 230.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…1493backed No | 16c | 205.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…31f4backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…d993backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…27f0backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…f786backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 24c | 199.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 199.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 11c | 194.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…0b92backed No | 13c | 189.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…40f3backed No | 16c | 175.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 77c | 171.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 18c | 163.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 15c | 161.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378b…2ac0backed No | 12c | 160.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…bac3backed No | 16c | 159.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 20c | 145.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 25c | 145.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6038…3bd9backed No | 30c | 133.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 29cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 20c | 129.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -11.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 21c | 129.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…aefabacked No | 16c | 127.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 11c | 123.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 13c | 122.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…83f1backed No | 12c | 122.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3953…cb4ebacked No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 9c | 112.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 21c | 108.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a835backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ad86backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…a2b6backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…bef2backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…e610backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…ecc8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…9694backed No | 22c | 97.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by January 31?this page
- Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.