TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2bc0…fab9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$478.88
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$183.48
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$402.23
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+78.6%+$260.92
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$131.35
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+92.3%+$287.52
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$81.06
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+257.1%+$46.8
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$185.22
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$160.16
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$241.18
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.8
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$275.88
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$252.84
Will Trump say "Peace" 8+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$221.26
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$57.68
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+40.8%+$205.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+350.5%+$658.19
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$286.62
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.64
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$81
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.95
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.4
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$165.74
Will Trae Young be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+455.6%+$587.94
All 8 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.40per pick54cpaid-74%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$401.38
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$365.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-02-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$311.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+56.3%+$246.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform Silver in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+37%+$88.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+28.2%+$78.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$456Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$128.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$164.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 1 knockdown during Paul vs Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$150.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$67.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$519Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$518.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$79.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.