TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,068
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,068 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90bf…99ebbacked No13c1,403$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.527222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6705…7ddcbacked No43c1,349$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed No43c1,246$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.78862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed No44c1,138$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.72933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes52c1,032$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.361643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No48c953$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.445750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes57c857$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.512951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed Yes57c769$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.672152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No54c727$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.582548%12 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No12c721$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed Yes58c700$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2941050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked No42c637$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.542268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+46.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No43c629$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.472934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No41c624$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.845345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes57c622$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.463036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No43c622$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.463145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed Yes57c590$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed Yes56c578$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.321921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes58c577$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.341942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes59c563$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.833432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes56c560$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.42540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No43c556$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.081030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Yes57c555$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.653063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No27c546.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4848236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No42c507$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.942846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d4…9bd3backed No17c501.1$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No4c466.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.873119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes77c444$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.1311637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No43c373$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.392254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes57c373$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.391747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes46c343$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.221163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No48c334$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.323240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e2…c125backed Yes77c330.87$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.92030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7546…2d93backed Yes57c318$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.741154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No5c296.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.362781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes46c283$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.821580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x34ad…a1a1backed Yes72c279.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes57c263$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.09862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed No43c263$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.091346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes57c252$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.363740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2111…667fbacked Yes57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes57c238$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.343951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No9c226.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1717010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No13c225$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9626541.9%111 W · 154 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc0…fab9backed No42c193$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.06955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed No29c184.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.563850%19 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes52c172$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes59c171$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.112250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes57c162$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.661957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde5e…3a94backed Yes52c161.8$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.93847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No17c157.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8511240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked No43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No21c133.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0613130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes78c119.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.414628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1412…b6debacked Yes78c118.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.64650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb304…1bffbacked No13c116$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No41c110$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.12642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…c2b6backed No22c107.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.532556%14 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes46c101$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.541030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e5…6563backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6758…d25ebacked No50c96.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-61.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No43c95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.854542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed No25c88.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.042147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes52c83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.84742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes65c79.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8320668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No19c77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.635831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked No45c69.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes57c66.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.411421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-54.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.22965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed No42c57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.853016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa53d…9710backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes61c41.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.311,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x972c…d0a1backed Yes70c40.16$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes57c34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.622524%6 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-61.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d64…2a09backed Yes80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ab…c582backed Yes75c30.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be5…8d0cbacked No38c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked Yes62c29.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.031145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f9f…b01fbacked Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2523751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes75c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7534651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e66…0ef9backed Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.15100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.