Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79975dfc1a63e2b9b8defce6a54a48f0bc228f5f7a8b159d8f6243e7092bd98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 6c | 2,379$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 5c | 2,244$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,669$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 828.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed No | 73c | 764$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 47cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 22c | 759$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked No | 78c | 753$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 22c | 654$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed No | 78c | 585$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 493.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 450$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…175fbacked Yes | 27c | 442$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 27c | 322$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 319.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…9692backed Yes | 5c | 194.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 12c | 157.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 153$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…217abacked Yes | 24c | 112$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 82.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 25c | 79.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?this page
- Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Yes won
- Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Kathy Seiden be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Randall Arrington be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Tracy Dendy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.