Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x850dcf3f4eb3cab5fcf014de53c89f6139965b0ed6a91a25194b91ed3d078fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 5,442$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.92 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcec…5d1cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,110$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 19c | 2,072$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 11c | 2,048$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,538$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec99…f750backed Yes | 10c | 1,471$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 8c | 1,160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…a887backed Yes | 10c | 1,083$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 21c | 980$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 702.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c50…778dbacked Yes | 5c | 661.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 619$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 9c | 614.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…5548backed Yes | 17c | 604.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…3848backed Yes | 10c | 563$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 20c | 551.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 16c | 537.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…9f3fbacked Yes | 10c | 526$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked No | 79c | 513$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…19b2backed Yes | 30c | 497.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed No | 80c | 468$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…4c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 457$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 20c | 407$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 20c | 379$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 78c | 355.56$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…5c3dbacked Yes | 10c | 335$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 300.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3560…11f0backed Yes | 11c | 277$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 80c | 275$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 79c | 265$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 80c | 239$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 213.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 79c | 202$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 66c | 201.49$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 20c | 196$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…81c5backed Yes | 10c | 191$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1a…e58bbacked Yes | 10c | 191$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed No | 79c | 176.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 21c | 172.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 147.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 140.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 22c | 139.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 59c | 136$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 133.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 132.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…71c9backed Yes | 10c | 131$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 128.63$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 127$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 125.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 36c | 122.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3815…4b24backed Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc145…3f23backed Yes | 10c | 109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 34c | 88.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7762…a8debacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 83.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 80.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…7dcfbacked No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…f00fbacked Yes | 21c | 68.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 16c | 67.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 22c | 63.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…217abacked No | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 65c | 48.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 69c | 34.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed No | 73c | 31.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…3717backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda40…5eddbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?this page
- Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Yes won
- Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Kathy Seiden be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Randall Arrington be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Tracy Dendy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.