Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe68a6a9012306744a733df13344757b3ac6cfb31f59e77a10b748f639d52d53e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 73c | 1,342$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 73c | 1,025$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 27c | 963$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafea…230bbacked Yes | 27c | 811$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 73c | 809$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 27c | 750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 73c | 733$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 27c | 678$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 27c | 675$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes | 27c | 632$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 27c | 603$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 27c | 592$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 73c | 592$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 73c | 582$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 28c | 570$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed No | 73c | 487$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 27c | 484$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 73c | 480$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 73c | 479$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 27c | 464$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 73c | 444$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 73c | 424$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 27c | 417$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 73c | 410$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 27c | 410$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 72c | 404$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 27c | 381$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 73c | 381$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 27c | 379$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 27c | 377$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 71c | 324$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 309$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 255 | 62.7%160 W · 95 L | +26.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 73c | 287$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 73c | 283$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 27c | 267$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 27c | 253$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 27c | 251$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 73c | 251$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 73c | 242$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 27c | 242$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 27c | 239$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…ae79backed No | 73c | 232$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 27c | 220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 28c | 219.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | -15.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 73c | 196$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 73c | 184$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 73c | 179$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 8c | 168.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 73c | 161$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 27c | 158$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 73c | 156$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 99.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 190 | 24.7%47 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 45.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 281 | 34.2%96 W · 185 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 75c | 41.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?this page
- Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Blake Miguez be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Yes won
- Will Kathy Seiden be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Randall Arrington be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
- Will Tracy Dendy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.