TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,962
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,962 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x614e…4f1bbacked No15c12,913$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,984.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No12c7,649$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.95133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b36…a393backed No10c4,751$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No13c3,433$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.514729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed No20c2,700$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.823348.5%16 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes68c2,198$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.92922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked Yes62c2,100$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0952…a44bbacked No19c1,870$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No17c1,674$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.161020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No19c1,443$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9310740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes59c1,391$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.16141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No12c1,282$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.89137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-88.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No9c1,250$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.841233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No9c1,025$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.213928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No11c1,002$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.610340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes68c953.47$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.534333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No24c944.19$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6411522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No7c883.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.378234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No4c802.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.682015%3 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c765.41$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.9118237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed No10c699.01$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.92416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No15c695.04$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.022045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f4e…f455backed Yes66c677.3$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.18650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c590$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7517140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No31c574.94$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.23944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No20c549.35$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8122833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No42c517.18$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2182030%6 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No20c501.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7613546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No12c500$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6124433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes68c442.1$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.682272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No11c427.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7613143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4590…c7e4backed Yes70c426.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.06887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+108.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked No15c400$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.11861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No12c398.35$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4213625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes65c396.05$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.3116632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Yes64c387.5$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.53458.8%20 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes50c373.81$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.914748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No30c368.79$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4549411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes79c365.22$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No37c350$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.57447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c339.2$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6833238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked No32c310$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No33c306$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2715431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No20c275.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705b…7483backed Yes76c261.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.54757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick75cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes63c260$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.27843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No31c255.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4721155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0778…73d1backed No13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.143030%9 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c218.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523860.5%23 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No33c193.54$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.533421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed No32c188$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa253…101dbacked No10c187$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed No15c180$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.62166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No11c176.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.821741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No25c157.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.216322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe418…28b5backed No18c155$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes69c154$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.747339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No39c150.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No27c147.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.833540%14 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa50e…583ebacked Yes79c140.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No27c140.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4918310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7924861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes65c139.26$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4222848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes69c135$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.853438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+144%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No13c134.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.743941%16 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked No33c133$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.891442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No17c131.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.382326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No10c124$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No32c108.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No12c103.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510048%48 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No13c102.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7110946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b340backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8791…6e5ebacked Yes63c95.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.43887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No32c94.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.887324.7%18 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf129…1edcbacked No21c93.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes70c92.16$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.653132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No15c91.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51160%0 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3373…3716backed No17c90.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.231560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b7…dbaabacked Yes68c88.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.021560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No30c86.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.441533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes68c86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.666251.6%32 W · 30 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No32c83.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.424957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked Yes78c75.7$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.532755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No52c75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes76c74.49$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes78c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.755738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No37c69.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.920542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a6…f4acbacked No50c67.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes64c65$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.638343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes65c61.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.29147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.611936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f9…adb9backed Yes68c57.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.382347.8%11 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+194.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f61…a33bbacked Yes62c51.39$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9555…12dabacked No32c51.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No28c50.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8112150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.