Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d984f9f472d72fd2c65bc63974ee5cef90a1c79c134dde6d0a201a572c730b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 62c | 9,783$6,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,077.6 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 42c | 5,557$2,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,343.4 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked Yes | 74c | 4,577$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,385.79 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 49c | 3,765$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.45 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 25c | 2,129$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed No | 26c | 1,616$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 45c | 1,535$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.68 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 27c | 1,461$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 73c | 1,425$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 73c | 1,359$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 73c | 1,345$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 33c | 1,303$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 49c | 1,299$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 25c | 1,253$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 26c | 1,176$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 58c | 1,136$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 70c | 1,087$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 73c | 1,047$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 24c | 1,010$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.84 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 74c | 1,009$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed No | 34c | 1,007$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 75c | 990$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 44c | 962.36$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.83 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 25c | 949$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 73c | 898$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 56c | 894.73$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.37 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 58c | 881.55$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.96 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 75c | 880$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 70c | 873$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 29c | 869$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 74c | 860$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 853.1$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.95 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 71c | 847$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked No | 31c | 833$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.92 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 76c | 785$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 73c | 775$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.75 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 25c | 773$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +193%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 30c | 748$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 44c | 741.46$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.84 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 74c | 735$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.34 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 73c | 718$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 25c | 696$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 68c | 695$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed Yes | 76c | 675$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 24c | 671$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 28c | 650$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed Yes | 64c | 638$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 73c | 635$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 27c | 629$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 66c | 628$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 75c | 627$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 29c | 624$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed Yes | 67c | 610$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 27c | 608$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 27c | 608$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 72c | 577$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 75c | 561$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 29c | 556$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 71c | 556$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 28c | 550$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 25c | 546$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 75c | 546$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 75c | 543$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 27c | 521$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 73c | 518$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 24c | 507$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 27c | 501$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 32c | 498$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 70c | 482$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 30c | 482$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 24c | 478$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed No | 31c | 477.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 30c | 477$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes | 70c | 477$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…a54dbacked Yes | 68c | 473$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 75c | 463$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 29c | 454$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 34c | 440$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 75c | 439$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 32c | 432$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 25c | 427$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 70c | 418.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 65c | 417$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 25c | 411$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 27c | 407$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…9b0abacked Yes | 13c | 399.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 29c | 393$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 70c | 374$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 23c | 353.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 10c | 348.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 70c | 339$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 25c | 339$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 333.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.87 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 331.46$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 70c | 324$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 30c | 324$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.8 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 69c | 323.34$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.1 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 27c | 319$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.