Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6fe310c29cdbbaa93eee985dd90b563ae838eaf876cae8e60884fa013a0a3cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 17,298$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.39 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes | 2c | 13,764$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef0…677abacked Yes | 2c | 13,760$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 9,974$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d1ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,071$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…4dc1backed Yes | 1c | 7,472$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ef…d6e7backed Yes | 2c | 5,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…0e02backed Yes | 2c | 3,126$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,881$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a69…9211backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,971$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfb…fac1backed Yes | 1c | 1,652$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…ae79backed Yes | 1c | 1,041$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…f53dbacked Yes | 2c | 940.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…66e6backed Yes | 2c | 741.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.