Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08354f9dd6711d2e7e3db1478ccd88ff26cab97fa9dde79806acce5b62ded649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 28c | 15,609$4,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,172.65 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 10c | 8,071$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,229.48 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 8c | 3,484$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.25 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…7befbacked No | 77c | 2,003$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,535.27 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 23c | 1,825$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.21 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…5b58backed Yes | 36c | 1,605$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 10c | 1,370$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.47 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed No | 69c | 1,311$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.21 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 62c | 1,138$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 62c | 1,090$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…146dbacked No | 2c | 1,078$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 28c | 993$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 56c | 950$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed Yes | 62c | 934$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 18c | 924$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 38c | 848$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…0ec6backed Yes | 62c | 844$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 62c | 823$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed Yes | 62c | 815$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 55c | 806$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 38c | 802$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 62c | 775$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed No | 57c | 774$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 38c | 774$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed Yes | 62c | 771$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 62c | 770$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 62c | 765$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 38c | 763$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 38c | 763$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 38c | 757$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked No | 38c | 751$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed No | 38c | 751$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…a978backed No | 38c | 735$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 68c | 720.56$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 38c | 694$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes | 62c | 683$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 38c | 679$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 62c | 673$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 38c | 636$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 626.34$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.27 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 618.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.85 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 23c | 615.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 62c | 612$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 62c | 606$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed No | 38c | 605$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 62c | 577$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 572.87$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 62c | 570$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…88adbacked No | 38c | 566$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 564.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.72 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 4c | 563.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 62c | 546$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…9afbbacked Yes | 19c | 531.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +431.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 38c | 527$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 38c | 526$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed No | 38c | 523$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 62c | 503$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked Yes | 62c | 503$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 62c | 495$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 62c | 485$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 38c | 484$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 30c | 481.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes | 62c | 474$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed No | 38c | 464$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 38c | 463$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 45c | 460$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 11c | 459$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.66 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 38c | 459$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 53c | 441$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 62c | 435$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 38c | 432$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 38c | 429$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 62c | 422$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes | 62c | 415$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 62c | 410$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 38c | 408$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 38c | 402$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 397.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 62c | 396$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 62c | 393$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 38c | 392$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 38c | 388$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 62c | 385$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 39c | 373$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked No | 38c | 373$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 62c | 373$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…93fbbacked Yes | 38c | 372.28$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 14c | 371$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed No | 38c | 367$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 62c | 366$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 14c | 358$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 27c | 354$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed No | 38c | 349$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 62c | 346$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 62c | 335$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 76c | 334.31$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 38c | 334$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 62c | 332$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…b18ebacked No | 38c | 332$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in December 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.