Boxing · resolved market
Will there be 1 knockdown during Paul vs Joshua?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc27b2c05db7bfcdad2013997799c2e93d3e751a5b7c2072087c606d45d9361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed No | 57c | 1,293$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,001$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 57c | 678$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 38c | 599.32$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…3fd6backed Yes | 55c | 428.02$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 399.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 51c | 399.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.99 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes | 43c | 349$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d86…d0a2backed Yes | 43c | 307$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc49…0daabacked Yes | 47c | 296.31$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked Yes | 43c | 286$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 37c | 182.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 43c | 177$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 57c | 155$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…138abacked Yes | 45c | 154.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…e08ebacked No | 67c | 141.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…4a41backed Yes | 55c | 136.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…177ebacked Yes | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…ad68backed Yes | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cb…a867backed Yes | 48c | 103.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…bde4backed Yes | 50c | 100.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…7625backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…4db2backed Yes | 66c | 60.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…34b3backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…5afcbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…49b7backed Yes | 60c | 46.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 45.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 53c | 41.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…0a58backed No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 49c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b8…1c6fbacked Yes | 51c | 37.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2894…2b02backed Yes | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed No | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 1 knockdown during Paul vs Joshua?this page
- Will Paul vs Joshua not occur by January 31?No won
- Will there be 0 knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua?No won
- Will there be 2 knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua?No won
- Will there be 3 knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua?No won
- Will there be 4+ knockdowns during Paul vs Joshua?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.