Movies · resolved market

Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ffe076ca9613aacdf347388296388c56c03465152de4837492092e7bd40d95

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,065 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9648…6825backed No	10c	5,422$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.2	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	25c	3,317$822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821.9	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No	11c	3,028$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.09	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	20c	2,390$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.84	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes	74c	1,876$1,381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.47	131	50.4%66 W · 65 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	52c	1,291$673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$617.9	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No	34c	1,131$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.43	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No	12c	948.89$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.28	55	5.5%3 W · 52 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc363…9fd8backed No	61c	902.36$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.1	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed No	18c	892$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.56	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.17per pick	46cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	54c	766.9$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.19	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db4…07c9backed No	20c	743.64$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	52c	679$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.52	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0895…4ddebacked No	48c	673$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.04	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+57.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed No	18c	641$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.38	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No	19c	627$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.13	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked No	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc0…fab9backed Yes	52c	599$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.52	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes	52c	559$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.32	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed No	48c	518$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.64	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	14c	500.63$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.55	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes	65c	498$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.3	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No	18c	472$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.96	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed No	48c	454$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.92	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No	37c	448.45$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.77	67	29.9%20 W · 47 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked No	35c	422$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.7	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x987e…990dbacked Yes	52c	416$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.68	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	62cpaid	+42%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes	53c	412$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$193.64	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes	47c	401$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.53	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed Yes	80c	395$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Yes	51c	388.76$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.76	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes	52c	388$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.24	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ef…79d6backed No	58c	360$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.1	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes	50c	354$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes	56c	352.22$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.22	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No	20c	347$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.4	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes	39c	343.97$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.98	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.8wins	+0.22per pick	46cpaid	+120.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed Yes	80c	342$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.4	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-5.2wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed Yes	52c	340$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.2	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No	20c	328$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed No	10c	320$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes	68c	311.1$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.55	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+57%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c92…4744backed Yes	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked No	68c	296.21$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	113	52.2%59 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	55c	292.92$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.25	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked Yes	63c	287.56$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.56	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No	50c	287$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.5	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No	48c	282$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.36	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aaf…4bd2backed Yes	52c	257$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.36	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	50c	256.33$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.31	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes	69c	252.35$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.65	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked No	35c	245$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.64	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No	53c	242$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.26	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	11c	241.75$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.57	208	41.8%87 W · 121 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed No	58c	235$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.3	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…2486backed No	58c	234.93$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.86	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	64c	228$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.52	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes	42c	224$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.92	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No	48c	224$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.52	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b02…0df8backed No	11c	222.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Yes	68c	220.2$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.2	22	50%11 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	59c	215$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.22	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed No	58c	214$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.12	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed No	10c	211.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.16	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…2238backed No	25c	209$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.25	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes	75c	209$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.25	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	43c	203$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.08	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No	41c	200$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	+106.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed No	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d9…ce11backed No	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed Yes	41c	200$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed No	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No	50c	197$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.4	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed No	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	50c	187$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.5	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No	50c	186$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes	43c	184.83$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.83	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed No	48c	178$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.44	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed No	48c	175$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked No	22c	169$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.67	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.23per pick	54cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3868…c4b8backed No	34c	169$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes	52c	167$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.16	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b32…c8a9backed No	48c	167$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.16	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No	54c	157$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.54	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes	50c	151.92$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.96	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked No	48c	151$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe62…6d76backed No	48c	151$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5e…af8dbacked No	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ff…5e17backed Yes	61c	150$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+69%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No	42c	148$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.84	60	15%9 W · 51 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No	35c	147.58$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.92	198	36.4%72 W · 126 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No	24c	145.6$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.49	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes	45c	144$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No	47c	144$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.68	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked No	18c	140$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked No	47c	138$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.86	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes	52c	133$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.84	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed No	58c	128$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.88	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c73…b943backed No	16c	126.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked No	10c	125.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event