Movies · resolved market

Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c1ef5675273ed02b047832a67c77f2c91051cd2303fd1dd0dc0d2adf129cf2

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,585
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,585 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9648…6825backed Yes	16c	4,131$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.95	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes	13c	1,765$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.9	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	1,513$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.66	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes	10c	1,156$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.98	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	17c	1,110$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.7	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	16c	1,006$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.95	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	294	23.5%69 W · 225 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d89…637ebacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+115.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed Yes	18c	834$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.12	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d7f…4bafbacked Yes	12c	803.4$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa749…6a65backed Yes	9c	640$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	17c	563.5$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.18	55	5.5%3 W · 52 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes	18c	479$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.22	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2de2…feabbacked Yes	16c	437$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+79.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	14c	400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.79	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes	12c	398.71$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.85	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	15c	368.31$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.85	1,393	8%111 W · 1,282 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fb…3e92backed Yes	18c	304.44$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes	18c	303$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.54	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	12c	293.04$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	17c	266$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.42	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x111f…af00backed Yes	18c	258.6$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	55cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	8c	255.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	231	30.3%70 W · 161 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	9c	230$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	6c	230$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fdb…7091backed Yes	18c	225.56$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb54…2c07backed Yes	12c	199.46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	10c	190$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes	7c	187$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes	14c	184.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.07	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	13c	183.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	16c	178.37$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.78	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8a6…eb5ebacked Yes	16c	147.06$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes	7c	145$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	10c	138.8$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c73…b943backed Yes	16c	125.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked Yes	11c	111.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a7…4d86backed Yes	13c	111$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	329	24%79 W · 250 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	16c	96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes	13c	93.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	14c	88.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7118…3ac3backed Yes	18c	87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes	13c	85.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No	72c	52.77$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.78	206	68.9%142 W · 64 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	70cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No	77c	39.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.1	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-4.3wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	75c	13.72$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.46	192	40.6%78 W · 114 L	-20.3wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event