Movies · resolved market

Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15eb6144875ec22c24b18c6f34e0ce2d5783765f740de9a4ac0e8fdb10fa832

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $59,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,511 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x21b4…e6b1backed No	2c	7,190$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No	0c	5,252$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2798…5362backed No	0c	2,501$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No	12c	1,753$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.89	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	18c	1,243$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.81	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f1…bc37backed Yes	71c	1,202$852 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-53%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	2c	1,011$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked No	11c	845.93$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.05	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	1c	821$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No	28c	815.22$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.88	62	29%18 W · 44 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No	4c	800$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.44	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	2c	658$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x520d…babebacked Yes	74c	406.72$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.72	113	52.2%59 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed No	6c	386$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No	12c	350.14$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.02	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c2a…37f4backed No	4c	236.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	29c	229.48$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.85	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	29c	205$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.47	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No	9c	201$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	19c	200.16$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes	64c	140.63$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.63	157	39.5%62 W · 95 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes	65c	138.51$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.51	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes	66c	113.64$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.64	69	55.1%38 W · 31 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+34%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	79c	107.8$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.15	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked No	13c	106$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No	14c	103$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed No	13c	100.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.02	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	184	44%81 W · 103 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	+10.8wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event