Movies · resolved market

Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21abf1df8d15831c261ea126c0de3f0ad47444e1a4e4f5fd70534335442c859e

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,500

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x961a…73acbacked Yes	9c	21,911$1,919 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,918.85	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+57%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	14c	2,802$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.89	71	25.4%18 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes	17c	977$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.09	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes	19c	787$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.53	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes	18c	779$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.22	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked Yes	19c	694$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.86	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	23c	688.04$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.17	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked Yes	18c	668$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.24	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	8c	654.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	80	40%32 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes	19c	644$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.36	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.15per pick	39cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	33c	614.59$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.45	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No	80c	604$483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.8	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked Yes	34c	544$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.96	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes	18c	514$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.52	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes	20c	473$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.6	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes	10c	462.46$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	131	30.5%40 W · 91 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes	19c	460$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.4	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes	33c	456.91$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.75	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	453.33$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.33	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	447.35$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.12	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	4c	425.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	55	5.5%3 W · 52 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes	10c	413.55$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes	19c	413$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.75	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes	19c	411$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.09	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	400$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No	79c	388$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.53	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	70c	372.9$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.97	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4f1…1ec9backed Yes	6c	363.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.9wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes	37c	337.9$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.02	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No	63c	320$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.4	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab72…b70dbacked Yes	35c	315$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.09	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	300.45$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes	29c	297$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.13	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No	66c	259$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.06	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	27c	236.4$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	1,394	8%111 W · 1,283 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26b1…211abacked Yes	6c	225.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes	21c	222$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.62	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes	19c	211$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.09	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes	18c	208$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.44	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	73c	196$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.54	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked No	65c	181$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.35	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	180.72$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	484	14%68 W · 416 L	-39.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed No	71c	178$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.78	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes	17c	175$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.75	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+3.6wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed No	66c	168$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.12	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No	67c	167$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.11	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked No	74c	166$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.57	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes	21c	161$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes	35c	149$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.15	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked Yes	18c	148$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	10c	143$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	154	9.7%15 W · 139 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed No	67c	140$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.2	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed Yes	22c	139$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked No	69c	135.67$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.44	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed Yes	20c	131$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.2	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	29c	130.2$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.41	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No	52c	130$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.55	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes	29c	123$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.67	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ee…421bbacked Yes	54c	120.3$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.03	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	63c	118.26$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.38	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No	66c	117$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.78	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes	48c	115$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed Yes	18c	111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	30c	110$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.04	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f7d…a315backed Yes	33c	108$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	71c	103.45$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4028…7de4backed Yes	29c	103.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…bcf0backed No	51c	102$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.13	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	61c	100$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39	162	37.7%61 W · 101 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Yes	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed No	78c	96$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.12	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	39c	85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.87	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No	50c	83$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.16	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23e9…109fbacked No	65c	82.42$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.85	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No	66c	82$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.88	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed Yes	33c	82$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.06	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes	34c	82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes	33c	79$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-4.3wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes	35c	78.16$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No	67c	78$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.74	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	63c	77$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.52	237	51.9%123 W · 114 L	+16.9wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked No	65c	76.92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked Yes	35c	73$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed Yes	33c	71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	41cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked No	60c	70$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.15	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No	78c	67$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.74	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No	76c	63.16$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6e…88adbacked No	65c	63$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.05	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+3.7wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc666…7130backed Yes	49c	62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f7…8079backed Yes	39c	60.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes	22c	60$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes	33c	58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes	40c	55$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No	49c	49.4$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.18	138	51.4%71 W · 67 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes	50c	49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf072…4676backed Yes	51c	49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	37c	48.44$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event