Movies · resolved market
Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b89c599a91f9d6520e24bf1be251cb87cf43267cefa3cebccfc6f685aacff1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55f1…2323backed No | 1c | 10,730$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…e57fbacked No | 1c | 10,730$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a6…3841backed No | 1c | 10,170$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…5a80backed No | 2c | 7,645$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…c541backed No | 1c | 7,625$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…d55ebacked No | 1c | 7,625$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf550…1b19backed No | 1c | 7,620$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…4f9cbacked No | 1c | 7,595$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…1bb2backed No | 2c | 7,595$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…fedcbacked No | 1c | 7,075$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bc…77a5backed No | 1c | 7,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed No | 2c | 4,262$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 4,169$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 1c | 2,287$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…2c14backed No | 2c | 1,033$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607b…f9b5backed No | 1c | 834.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 4c | 459.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked No | 4c | 306.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 247$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…445fbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…fb44backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamnet be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Anemone be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Blue Moon be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Die My Love be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Highest 2 Lowest be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Nouvelle Vague be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sorry Baby be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sound of Falling be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Lost Bus be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Smashing Machine be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Thunderbolts be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Warfare be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.