Movies · resolved market

Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5c2a11810e424290f83975af524e94a021cd858c182ecefdca2fbb030b9793

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,779
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $59,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,779 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb86e…8cfdbacked No	79c	2,397$1,883 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.63	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	14c	2,276$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.8	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	35c	1,942$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.41	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes	11c	1,763$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.64	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	49c	1,159$567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.32	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	25c	1,132$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.83	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	939.87$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	55	5.5%3 W · 52 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	17c	879.89$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.61	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed Yes	6c	800$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef49…932fbacked Yes	3c	712.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdd…516cbacked Yes	7c	705$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.03	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes	11c	665$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.15	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No	67c	553$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.49	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed Yes	11c	538$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.18	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes	11c	527$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.97	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc6…cc0cbacked Yes	16c	500.66$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Yes	11c	472$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.92	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	42cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	27c	451.71$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.33	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	24c	449.45$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.74	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	3c	444.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	71	35.2%25 W · 46 L	+4.7wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ae…93ecbacked Yes	14c	438.53$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+63.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes	26c	417$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.42	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	403.88$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	201	3.5%7 W · 194 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	400$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes	5c	358$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	246	34.6%85 W · 161 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf23e…aec3backed Yes	35c	347$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.45	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	6c	335.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes	26c	313$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No	42c	310$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.8	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No	42c	309$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.22	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Yes	33c	297$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.01	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes	5c	296$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes	58c	293.14$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.02	329	24%79 W · 250 L	+12.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	6c	288.63$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	220	30.5%67 W · 153 L	-13.6wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a9a…fdffbacked Yes	13c	288.49$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+105.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No	42c	277$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.66	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked Yes	58c	272$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.76	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb7d…637dbacked Yes	6c	269.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes	49c	254.76$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.83	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad2…c2c9backed Yes	6c	249.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No	71c	248.23$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.11	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	16c	248.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.89	1,393	8%111 W · 1,282 L	-47.9wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes	28c	241$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.46	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No	65c	231$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.85	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed No	74c	230$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.8	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f9…b7d1backed Yes	5c	223.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	6cpaid	+594.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes	26c	213$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.38	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6645…4b0ebacked Yes	6c	212.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes	11c	211$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes	58c	210$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.8	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	204.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	90	1.1%1 W · 89 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	6cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.06	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6de2…adcabacked Yes	64c	200$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-48%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes	31c	196$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.98	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed No	64c	190$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.8	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes	30c	189$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.14	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No	42c	188$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.04	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed No	64c	187$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.16	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02ee…5adebacked Yes	58c	179$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.82	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked No	74c	175$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.5	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed No	74c	171$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.46	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba6b…b341backed Yes	35c	170$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked No	74c	167$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.42	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.19per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	72c	158.57$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.57	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes	58c	153$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.74	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	21c	152$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.54	102	44.1%45 W · 57 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes	39c	150$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	80	30%24 W · 56 L	-9.2wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes	58c	147$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes	33c	146$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.18	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes	12c	145$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes	11c	144$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b63…52cfbacked No	64c	144$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.7	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No	37c	143$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.09	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No	74c	142$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed Yes	13c	138$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	-10%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes	58c	136$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.88	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830f…5dd4backed Yes	8c	132.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No	74c	131$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.06	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	47cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No	74c	122.29$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.61	136	50%68 W · 68 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes	12c	116$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d1…d015backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No	42c	111$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.38	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No	42c	108$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.64	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	26c	107.23$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	137	40.1%55 W · 82 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes	63c	107$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.41	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…3bc8backed Yes	13c	105$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes	58c	105$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed Yes	13c	105$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	49c	105$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes	13c	105$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No	42c	105$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.9	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes	58c	105$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.9	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes	58c	100$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-38%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0732…c290backed No	37c	100$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	285	28.8%82 W · 203 L	-8.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes	37c	98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.26	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed Yes	13c	97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event