Movies · resolved market

Will Rental Family be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b065e61c807714691609e2439cfd078ba3ad323b80802858bcf94ef372bb13f

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $29,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,826 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	16c	5,766$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$948.55	506	33.4%169 W · 337 L	-30.0wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x252b…b46cbacked Yes	12c	5,644$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.1	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+3.6wins	+0.12per pick	30cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	2,999$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	111	4.5%5 W · 106 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes	10c	1,131$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.83	178	21.3%38 W · 140 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes	4c	906.72$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.53	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.14per pick	16cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	5c	874.4$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	7c	771.31$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.82	365	38.1%139 W · 226 L	-19.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	2c	604.73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	55	5.5%3 W · 52 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	12c	511.68$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.97	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes	14c	277$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.78	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	47	2.1%1 W · 46 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-78%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes	15c	200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.22	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes	11c	190$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	10c	159.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	672	32%215 W · 457 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-30%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	16cpaid	-84%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 33 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rental Family be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event